贵金属策略报告-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion factor shows that the potential meeting between China and the US may ease trade - war risks, while the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weakening employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is being realized [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the China - US trade negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, with Trump expressing optimism and China being cautious. Trump has cancelled a meeting with Putin and complained about the deadlock in negotiations [1]. - Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer price increase in September was slightly lower than expected. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months, and the market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year [1]. - For the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating weakly in the short term, oscillating at a high level in the medium term, and rising in a step - by - step manner in the long term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals oscillated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold Futures closed down 1.24%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver Futures closed down 0.47% [1]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. With the Fed's decision and China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [2]. - Data Summary: International and domestic gold prices generally declined, with varying degrees of decrease in different price indicators. Some basis, spread, and ratio indicators changed significantly, and there were also changes in positions and inventories [2]. - Net Position Ranking: The report lists the top 10 net - long and net - short positions of gold futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, showing the changes in positions of different companies [3]. Silver - Price Anchor: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [5]. - Fund and Inventory Situation: The net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF slightly increased, and the visible inventory of silver decreased slightly recently [5]. - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Risk management is recommended during the Fed's decision and China - US talks [6]. - Data Summary: International and domestic silver prices showed different trends. Some basis and spread indicators changed greatly, and there were also changes in positions and inventories [6]. - Net Position Ranking: The report lists the top 10 net - long and net - short positions of silver futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, showing the changes in positions of different companies [7]. Fundamental Key Data - Fed - Related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous period. The Fed's total assets decreased slightly, and M2's year - on - year growth rate decreased slightly [8]. - Other Key Indicators: There were changes in indicators such as the 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and various interest - rate spreads. Inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industrial, trade, and other aspects also had corresponding data changes [8][10]. - Central Bank Gold Reserves: The gold reserves of China, the US, and the world remained stable, and there were changes in the proportion of the US dollar, euro, and RMB in the IMF's foreign exchange reserves, as well as the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves [10][12]. - Risk and Commodity - Related Indicators: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, the VIX index decreased, the CRB commodity index decreased slightly, and the offshore RMB exchange rate changed slightly [12]. - Fed's Interest - Rate Expectation: The report shows the probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate range in different meetings in the future based on the CME FedWatch tool [13].