中美有望达成协议，对豆粕影响几何：豆粕专题报告

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: The current soybean meal price is close to the industry cost, with significant long - short divergence. The market focuses on the Sino - US negotiation results. The negotiation progresses smoothly, and there is a possibility of a US soybean purchase agreement. The soybean meal may weaken again due to the bearish sentiment [2][98] - Medium - term: The market agrees that China's soybean supply is sufficient this year. The 01 contract may be anchored to the lowest cost valuation. The only bullish factors for the 01 contract are the uncertain weather in the South American sowing season and the unpromoted 12 - month ship purchases. If US soybeans arrive in China in the first quarter of next year, the 03 contract will decline following the 01 contract [2][98] - Operation suggestion: Be cautious about bottom - fishing before the South American weather situation is clear. It is recommended to participate in the 1 - 5 reverse spread based on the logic of sufficient soybean supply in China before the end of the year [2][98] Summary Based on the Table of Contents I. Market Review - The fluctuation of the domestic soybean meal contract 01 has increased this week. After breaking through the support level and then strongly rebounding, the long - short game is intense. The market expects the Sino - US negotiation results to provide directional guidance. The CBOT US soybean main contract has strongly rebounded by more than 50 cents per bushel to around 1060 cents due to the optimistic expectation of the Sino - US negotiation and the strong domestic crushing demand in the US [5] II. Sino - US Expected to Reach an Agreement 2.1 Latest Trade Negotiation Progress - Since October, Sino - US game has intensified. After multiple rounds of communications and consultations, from October 25th to 26th, Sino - US economic and trade teams held consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues and will go through the respective domestic approval procedures [25][26] 2.2 Impact of Negotiation Results on the Domestic Soybean Meal Market - If the negotiation makes no progress or only cancels part of the tariffs, the 03 contract may rise to repair the crushing profit. If all mutual - imposed tariffs are cancelled, the 01 and 03 contracts may weaken further. If China promises to increase the purchase of US soybeans, it will be a major bearish factor for domestic soybean meal [29][30][31] 2.3 Follow - up Concerns - Whether Sino - US will issue a joint statement this week and their interaction. The Sino - US leaders' meeting in South Korea from October 31st to November 1st [33] III. Fundamental Overview 3.1 United States - Reasons for the rebound and future trend of US soybeans: The recent rebound of CBOT US soybeans is due to the strong domestic crushing demand in the US and the optimistic expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans. If US soybeans return to the Chinese market, CBOT US soybeans may rise, but the increase should not be over - optimistic. If not, the price may fall below 1000 cents [35][36] - Harvest approaching the end: The new - season US soybean harvest started in mid - September and is expected to be over 80% completed [37] - No new - crop US soybeans sold to China: Due to the current tariff level, China has not pre - purchased the 2025/26 new - crop US soybeans, and the sales progress of new - crop US soybeans is the slowest in the past decade [38] 3.2 Brazil - Smooth sowing of new crops and increasing production forecast: As of October 18th, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 21.7%. The predicted export volume of soybeans in the 2025/2026 crop year is expected to reach 1.1211 billion tons, and the production is expected to be 1.7764 billion tons [47] - Significant year - on - year increase in soybean exports: In September, Brazil's soybean export volume was 734.1 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year. ANEC expects the export volume in October to be 734 million tons [49] - A large amount of unsold old - crop soybeans: The unsold old - crop soybeans in Brazil are estimated to be about 1500 - 2000 million tons [50] 3.3 Argentina - New - crop sowing to start in mid - to late October with a reduced planting area: The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Argentina is expected to decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares [57] - The suspension of export tax causing an earthquake in the global soybean market: After Argentina suspended the export tax on soybeans and related products from September 23rd, the global soybean price fell, and the spot market in Argentina was booming. During the tax - suspension period, the cumulative export sales of soybeans exceeded 5 million tons, further confirming the sufficient soybean supply in China this year [58] 4.1 China - Abundant soybean supply: In September 2025, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans. The estimated arrival volume of soybeans in domestic oil mills in October is about 9.49 million tons, and the annual cumulative import volume is expected to reach 112.18 million tons, a record high. As of October 18th, the purchase progress for November was 87%, 16.1% for December, and no purchase for January. The soybean inventory of domestic oil mills is still high [63][64] - Support from rigid demand but hard to offset the short - term high supply: Since August, the downstream replenishment ability has been limited. From September to October, the monthly feed production increased month - on - month, and the proportion of soybean meal in feed increased [82] IV. Future Outlook - Futures market: In the short - term, soybean meal may weaken due to the expected Sino - US soybean purchase agreement. In the medium - term, the 01 contract may be affected by weather and purchase progress, and the 03 contract may decline if US soybeans arrive in China in the first quarter of next year [98] - Spot market: In the short - term, the supply is expected to remain loose until the end of the year, and the weak basis may last until November. In the medium - term, the basis may rise slightly but will be restricted by the sufficient soybean supply [100]