Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar strengthened again, with a daily increase of 1.54%. The demand for rebar has a seasonal rebound, but the supply has also increased. The fundamentals have not improved under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, and the pressure of inventory reduction remains. Supported by market sentiment and cost, the rebar price is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated upwards, with a daily increase of 1.45%. The market sentiment has improved, and the price of hot - rolled coil has rebounded from a low level. However, the supply pressure remains, and there are concerns about demand. With cost support, the price is expected to continue the volatile and stable trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened, with a daily increase of 1.94%. The market sentiment has improved, and the iron ore price has rebounded from a low level. However, the supply of iron ore is at a high level, while the demand continues to weaken. The fundamentals of iron ore are not good under the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The high - valued iron ore price is still prone to pressure. The iron ore price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - Regarding the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the two sides agreed to further determine specific details and fulfill their respective domestic approval procedures [6]. - From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 5373.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. Among them, the state - owned holding enterprises, joint - stock enterprises, foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises, and private enterprises had different profit growth rates [7]. - Tangshan Fengnan District launched a level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather from 12:00 on October 27, 2025, due to expected adverse diffusion conditions [8]. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3180 yuan, 3140 yuan, and 3232 yuan respectively, with price changes of 10 yuan, 30 yuan, and 13 yuan [9]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3330 yuan, 3220 yuan, and 3349 yuan respectively, with price changes of 40 yuan, 20 yuan, and 16 yuan [9]. - Other: The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2960 yuan, with a change of 30 yuan; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2160 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 793 yuan, with a change of 13 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 813 yuan, with no change [9]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3100 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.54%. The trading volume was 1,696,201 lots, an increase of 614,508 lots, and the open interest was 1,953,001 lots, a decrease of 97,544 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3299 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.45%. The trading volume was 595,934 lots, an increase of 165,988 lots, and the open interest was 1,482,730 lots, a decrease of 18,766 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 786.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.94%. The trading volume was 363,294 lots, an increase of 52,955 lots, and the open interest was 558,846 lots, a decrease of 6,796 lots [14]. Relevant Charts - Steel inventory: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [15][16][18]. - Iron ore inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, etc. [20][21][26]. - Steel mill production: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, and profitability of steel mills [29][31][32]. Future Outlook - Rebar: The supply and demand have both increased. The weekly output of rebar has increased by 5.91 tons, and the demand has a seasonal rebound. However, the fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory reduction pressure remains. With market sentiment and cost support, the price is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply and demand pattern has improved slightly. The weekly output has increased by 0.62 tons, and the demand has performed well. However, there are concerns about demand. With cost support, the price is expected to continue the volatile and stable trend [36]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has continued to weaken. The demand for iron ore is expected to continue to decrease, while the supply is at a high level. The iron ore price is expected to continue to oscillate [37].
市场情绪回暖，钢矿震荡走高：钢材&铁矿石日报-20251027
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-10-27 09:24