铜产业链周度数据报告：国际关系缓和叠加内需预期强劲，铜价高位再获上行驱动-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The easing of Sino - US relations and China's "15th Five - Year Plan" boost the overall demand for base metals, and the copper market is still favorable at the macro level [3]. - The supply gap in the copper market is expected to widen in 2026, and the negotiation of long - term contracts is difficult [3]. - The strong fundamentals of electrolytic copper are in a game with high copper prices, and downstream acceptance of high copper prices may decline [3]. - Although there are strong macro - level demand expectations for copper, the current actual demand is questionable [4]. - The fundamentals of the copper market are supported by the supply gap before 2026, and short - term variables are concentrated on the macro side. There may be short - term rapid declines, but they are good opportunities for long - positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Electrolytic Copper Market Price - 1.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Market Price: The Indonesia incident has continuously pushed up the ore price, and data on 20% copper concentrate market price, TC price, refined - scrap copper price difference, and copper import profit are presented [7][8][9]. - 1.2 Electrolytic Copper Spot - Futures Market Price: The copper mine incident is the dominant factor, and data on Shanghai copper spot - futures price, basis, Yangshan Bonded Area premium, and LME copper and COMEX copper prices are shown [11][12][15]. - 1.3 Outer - Market Copper Position Data: Overseas long - position speculation continues to increase, and data on overseas exchange inventory, LME copper warehouse receipt composition, fund position, and COMEX copper non - commercial position are provided [16][17][21]. 3.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory - 2.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Supply: Data on copper concentrate net import volume, electrolytic copper net import volume, and scrap copper net import volume are presented [27][28][29]. - 2.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory: Information on electrolytic copper monthly output, production rate, production cost, profit, and weekly inventory (including market inventory and factory inventory) is provided [32][34][36]. 3.3 Macro Data and Downstream Consumption - 3.1 US Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield: Data on the US dollar index, US Treasury yield spread, real interest rate, and inflation are presented [38][39][41]. - 3.2 US Economic Data: Information on US employment, market confidence index, social retail sales, inventory, central bank total assets, GDP growth rate, and stock index closing price is provided. The Fed hints at a possible halt to balance - sheet reduction [48][49][54]. - 3.3 Chinese Economic Data: In July, new loans turned negative, PMI was slightly above the boom - bust line. Data on M1, M2 growth rates, new RMB loans, manufacturing PMI, social consumer goods retail sales, and GDP growth rate are presented [58][63][64]. - 3.4 Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data: The "15th Five - Year Plan" may bring new expectations. Data on electrolytic copper monthly demand, copper foil production rate, terminal product output growth rate, and fixed - asset investment completion growth rate are provided [70][71].