Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-27 09:36Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On the supply side, the production of primary lead is expected to increase slightly due to smelter overhauls, and the recovery of recycled lead production is limited by factors such as low raw - material inventory and transportation controls. Short - term lead ingot spot will remain tight. It is recommended to short at high prices. - On the demand side, after the holidays, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded, and the traditional consumption season has boosted demand. However, since September, the increasing Shanghai - London ratio and tariff - affected exports of lead - acid batteries have curbed demand growth. - Inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and potential increase in recycled lead production, inventory may change. If the inventory depletion rate slows down, it will resist price increases. Overall, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 17,520 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,016.5 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. - The 12 - 01 contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 129,190 lots, up 6,702 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 641 lots, up 2,153 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 23,048 tons, unchanged. - The SHFE inventory is 36,333 tons, down 5,368 tons; the LME lead inventory is 235,375 tons, down 4,375 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,440 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 270 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead spread (0 - 3) is - 36.64 dollars/ton, up 0.19 dollars. - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,671 yuan, up 275 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,170 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. - The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. 上游情况 - The average operating rate of primary lead is 81.64%, down 1.92 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.91 tons, up 0.18 tons. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 2.5 kilotons, up 3.1 kilotons. - The global lead ore output is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate is 380 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The monthly refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons; the average price of waste batteries is 10,016.07 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 下游情况 - The monthly export volume of lead - acid batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries is 19,475 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 2,042.83 points, up 30.01 points; the monthly automobile output is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [2]. 行业消息 - Multiple political events are reported, including the US dispatching a carrier strike group, Trump - related events, and California governor's election plans. Also, the US may not release inflation data next month [2].