瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall start - up of the olefin industry declined last week. Affected by cost pressure and downstream price decline, the start - up of olefin enterprises may continue to decrease in the short term. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2320 in the short term. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises decreased last week, while the port inventory increased slightly. The import of methanol in October is still expected to be sufficient, and the port inventory may still rise [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2268 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 1102546 lots, an increase of 21596 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 189610 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 13922, a decrease of 170 [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2215 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2012.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - West price difference was 217.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 53 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 260 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 324 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 269 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 64 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.34 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.05 dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.7 tons, an increase of 3 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 48.52 tons, a decrease of 0.92 tons. The import profit of methanol was 2.39 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.45 yuan. The monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 360400 tons, an increase of 500 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 38.87%, a decrease of 2.01 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid was 74.4%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.79%, an increase of 4.67 percentage points; the operating rate of olefins was 90.43%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 905 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.08%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.31%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.38%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.38%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of October 22, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.04 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 21.57 tons, a decrease of 1.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.79%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 151.22 tons, an increase of 2.08 tons. The inventory in East China increased by 3 tons, while the inventory in South China decreased by 0.92 tons. The inventory at ports increased slightly. The overall production of methanol decreased as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts was more than the output of restored production capacity. The overall pressure on the supply side was not large [3] Viewpoint Summary - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 91.44%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%. The load of individual enterprises in the Northwest and East China decreased. Affected by weather and other factors, the unloading of foreign vessels at ports was still below expectations, and the提货 of mainstream social warehouses decreased significantly. The inventory at ports increased slightly. The import of methanol in October is still expected to be sufficient, and the inventory at ports may still rise. Affected by cost pressure and downstream price decline, the short - term start - up of olefin enterprises may continue to decrease [3]