冠通期货研究报告：震荡收平

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently characterized by relatively high factory inventories, ample supply, and weak domestic demand that struggles to absorb high - level inventories. With agricultural demand winding down, the market will focus on subsequent fertilizer stockpiling. In the short term, it is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed flat today. The spot market prices have been rising since the weekend, with agricultural dealers actively stockpiling fertilizers but becoming more cautious after price increases. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with price increases mostly between 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in Henan [1][4]. - The monthly average daily production calculated by Longzhong data is 18.50 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuates around 18 - 19 tons. Due to increased losses in gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has shut down. With winter gas and production restrictions approaching, gas - fired daily production is expected to decline next month. Fixed - bed and natural - gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After hitting the bottom recently, urea prices have rebounded, and profits have stabilized, providing cost support for the futures [1]. - As time progresses, factory inventories are gradually being depleted after agricultural demand, but they are still slightly higher than the same period last year. Northeast compound fertilizer plants are expected to gradually start production in late November. As autumn fertilizer production nears completion, subsequent production is expected to gradually increase, and spring compound fertilizer production will gradually begin. Although the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, the inventory is still in an accumulation cycle, and it is expected to increase moderately. Overall, factory inventories are still higher year - on - year, supply is relatively abundant, and domestic demand is insufficient to absorb high - level inventories. Agricultural demand is gradually ending, and the focus of domestic demand is on subsequent fertilizer stockpiling. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate at a low level [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1647 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, and finally closed flat at 1640 yuan/ton, forming a negative candlestick, with a change of + 0.00%. The trading volume was 281,954 lots, a decrease of 4384 lots [2]. - On October 27, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5288, a decrease of 119 compared to the previous trading day. Among them, Jilin Yuyuan decreased by 100, and Hengshui Cotton and Linen decreased by 18 [2]. - Spot: Since the weekend, spot market quotes have been rising continuously. Agricultural dealers are actively stockpiling fertilizers but are more cautious after price increases. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with price increases mostly between 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in Henan [1][4]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes increased, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on Henan, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply data: According to Feiyitong data, on October 27, 2025, the national daily production of urea was 19.04 tons, a decrease of 0.58 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8].