瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the I2601 contract fluctuated upwards. In terms of macroeconomics, the US CPI in September increased by 3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, with the estimate at 0.4%. Traders increased their bets on the Fed cutting interest rates twice more within the year. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrivals decreased, and the domestic port inventory continued to rise. The hot metal output fell below 2.4 million tons, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, combined with the rebound in steel prices, supported the furnace materials. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. The operation strategy is to be bullish on the fluctuations and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 786.50 yuan/ton, up 15.50 yuan; the position volume was 558,846 lots, down 6,796 lots. The spread between the I 1 - 5 contracts was 23 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 29,956 lots, down 12,504 lots. The warehouse receipts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 700 lots, with no change. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 105.7 US dollars/ton, up 1.50 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 850 yuan/dry ton, up 7 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 850 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 778 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract was 64 yuan, down 10 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index was 105.15 US dollars/ton (previous day), down 0.50 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.21, down 0.02. The estimated import cost was 857 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Global and Domestic Shipping and Inventory - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,388.40 million tons, up 54.80 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,084.30 million tons, down 592.00 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 15,109.49 million tons, up 147.62 million tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,079.19 million tons, up 96.46 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,633.00 million tons, up 1,111.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 19 days, down 1 day. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.15 million tons, down 0.19 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.50%, down 0.05%. The iron concentrate powder inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 47.45 million tons, down 1.85 million tons. The BDI index was 1,991.00, down 66.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.85 US dollars/ton, down 0.81 US dollars; from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.705 US dollars/ton, down 0.70 US dollars [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 84.73%, up 0.48%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 89.92%, down 0.39%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,349 million tons, down 388 million tons [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.94%, up 1.35%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.99%, up 0.66%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.78%, up 0.73%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.47%, up 1.14% [2] 3.7 Industry News - From October 20th to October 26th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,388.4 million tons, up 54.8 million tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,925.9 million tons, up 100.8 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 1,984.3 million tons, down 0.2 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,666.5 million tons, down 62.6 million tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 941.5 million tons, up 101.0 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,084.3 million tons, down 592.0 million tons; at 45 ports was 2,029.1 million tons, down 490.3 million tons; at six northern ports was 1,095.9 million tons, down 107.3 million tons [2]