银河期货油脂日报-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker. It is recommended to wait and see, but in the medium - term, the idea of buying on dips is maintained. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: - Soybean Oil: The 2601 closing price was 8234, up 40. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8454, 8534, and 8394 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 300 (unchanged), 220 (unchanged), and 160 (down 10) [2]. - Palm Oil: The 2601 closing price was 9100, down 22. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 9000, 9050, and 9200 respectively. Basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were - 100 (unchanged), - 50 (unchanged), and 100 (unchanged) [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: The 2601 closing price was 9748, down 13. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10118, 10128. Basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong were 370 (unchanged) and 380 (down 20) [2]. - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was 166, down 12; for palm oil, it was 20, up 2; for rapeseed oil, it was 383, down 1 [2]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: - The 01 - contract Y - P spread was - 866 (down 53), OI - Y was 1514, and OI - P was 648 (up 9). The oil - meal ratio was 2.81, up 0.01 [2]. - Import Profits: - The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a disk profit of - 245, with a CNF price of 1096 in November. The disk profit of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 885, with an FOB price of 1075 in November [2]. - Weekly Commercial Inventories (2025 Week 42, in 10,000 tons): - Soybean oil inventory was 54.8 this week, compared with 122.4 last week and 126.5 last year; palm oil inventory was 57.6 this week, compared with 49.0 last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 54.9 this week, compared with 57.1 last week and 40.3 last year [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit increased by 1.63% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.78% month - on - month [4]. - Domestic Market: - Palm Oil: As of October 24, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 60.71 tons, up 3.14 tons (5.45%) week - on - week. The import profit was about - 250. It is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, then consider lightly buying the 05 - contract after a pullback [4]. - Soybean Oil: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 236.74 tons, with an operating rate of 65.13%. As of October 24, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 125.03 tons, up 2.63 tons (2.15%) week - on - week. It is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, then consider lightly buying after a pullback [5]. - Rapeseed Oil: Last week, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 1.1 tons, with an operating rate of 2.93%. As of October 17, 2025, the coastal inventory was 54.9 tons, down 2.2 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price increased to around 1100 dollars, and the import profit was about - 900. It is expected that the coastal de - stocking trend will continue [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term, wait and see; medium - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips [10]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10]. - Options: Wait and see [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including those for spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [13][15]