Soochow Securities·2025-10-27 09:57Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The construction of a new energy system is accelerating, with a focus on achieving carbon peak and promoting a green lifestyle [4] - In the first nine months of 2025, total electricity consumption increased by 4.6% year-on-year, totaling 77,675 billion kWh [4] - The electricity spot market is rapidly starting continuous settlement trials, with several provinces transitioning to formal operations [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report highlights the importance of accelerating the construction of a new energy system as outlined in the recent Communist Party meeting [4] 2. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption for January to September 2025 reached 77,675 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [15] - Breakdown of consumption growth: - Primary industry: +10.2% - Secondary industry: +3.4% - Tertiary industry: +7.5% - Urban and rural residential consumption: +5.6% [4][15] 3. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation for January to September 2025 was 72,600 billion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [22] - Specific generation changes: - Thermal power: -1.2% - Hydropower: -1.1% - Nuclear power: +9.2% - Wind power: +10.1% - Solar power: +24.2% [22] 4. Electricity Prices - The average electricity purchase price in June 2025 was 389 RMB/MWh, down 1% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month [38] 5. Coal Prices - As of October 24, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 770 RMB/ton, up 9.07% year-on-year and increased by 22 RMB/ton week-on-week [45] 6. Hydropower Conditions - As of October 24, 2025, the water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 175 meters, with inflow and outflow rates increasing by 92% and 70% year-on-year, respectively [54] 7. Investment Recommendations - Focus on investment opportunities in hydropower and thermal power during peak summer demand [4] - Recommended companies include: - Thermal Power: JianTou Energy, Huadian International, Huaneng International, Guodian Power, Sheneng Shares, and Waneng Power [4] - Hydropower: Yangtze Power [4] - Nuclear Power: China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4] - Green Energy: Longi Green Energy and others [4]