Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. Core Views - Supply: As of October 22, the monthly daily production calculated by Longzhong data was 185,000 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuated around 180,000 - 190,000 tons. Based on the current daily output, the production in October is expected to be 5.85 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years. With the increasing losses of gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has started to shut down. Near the winter gas - limiting season, the daily production of gas - fired plants is expected to decline next month. Fixed - bed and natural gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After reaching the bottom recently, the urea price has stabilized and rebounded, and the profit has also stabilized. There is cost support below the urea futures price [5][35]. - Demand: Since this month, affected by the National Day holiday, the factory operating load decreased significantly at the beginning of the month and then gradually increased. In the first half of the month, the changeable weather postponed the corn harvest and wheat sowing, and the terminal sales were weak. As time passed, after the agricultural demand started, the factory's finished - product inventory gradually decreased but was still slightly higher than the same period last year. Currently, the compound fertilizer plants in Northeast China are expected to gradually start production by late November. As the autumn fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate is expected to gradually increase, and the production of spring compound fertilizer will gradually start. The operating rate of melamine has also shown a seasonal decline, providing little support for urea. The real - estate data remains sluggish. It is expected that the operating load will rebound next month, but the overall increase is expected to be weaker than in previous years [5]. - Inventory: This month, the urea inventory has increased significantly. On the one hand, during the National Day holiday, the production remained high while the downstream procurement decreased, greatly increasing the in - factory inventory. On the other hand, the agricultural demand was postponed this month, leading to an increase in the in - factory inventory. However, as the agricultural demand progresses, the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, but it is still in the inventory - accumulation cycle. It is expected that the inventory will increase moderately. Overall, due to the losses of upstream urea plants and the approaching gas - limiting season, the production will fluctuate slightly downward and is expected to remain at around 180,000 tons. The in - factory inventory is still relatively high year - on - year, and the supply is relatively loose. The domestic demand is difficult to absorb the high - level inventory. As the agricultural demand gradually ends, the subsequent downstream reserves and compound fertilizer production will be the main demand sources. The winter storage rhythm and changes in export policies will also affect the price trend. Currently, the market is oscillating at a low level [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The spot market was weak during the National Day holiday. After the futures market opened, the price dropped significantly and continued to decline. The futures price once reached a low of 1,578 yuan/ton and then started to consolidate at a low level. It rebounded in the second half of the month, but there was obvious upward pressure. It is expected to consolidate in the future. Attention should be paid to the impact of domestic macro - factors and possible changes in export policies [9]. Warehouse Receipts and Delivery - The validity period of urea warehouse and factory warehouse receipts is up to 4 months. Specifically, factory and warehouse standard warehouse receipts registered before the 15th trading day (inclusive) of February, June, and October each year should be fully cancelled before the 15th trading day (inclusive) of the same month. As of October 23, there were 5,484 registered urea warehouse receipts. Although approaching the cancellation date, the number is still at an absolute high level compared to the same period in history. Since 2025, the number of registered urea warehouse receipts has remained relatively high in recent years, reflecting the high - supply situation of urea to some extent [12]. Spot Price - Since October, the agricultural demand has been postponed due to frequent rainfall, resulting in weak terminal demand for urea and a continuous decline in price. Subsequently, supported by the cost side and with the start of agricultural demand and the end of the autumn fertilizer season, the price stopped falling and rebounded slightly. However, due to high supply and high inventory, the rebound space is limited. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of downstream fertilizer preparation and winter storage. The ex - factory prices in major regions fluctuate in the range of 1,500 - 1,600 yuan/ton. Looking forward to November, the end of the autumn fertilizer season, the spring production of compound fertilizers, off - season storage, and the rhythm of gas - fired plant restrictions will all affect the price movement. It is expected that the price will fluctuate narrowly after a rebound [19]. Basis - The urea basis has been in a state of contango. The pattern of loose supply and demand has suppressed the spot price. After the domestic demand is weak and the export demand is gradually digested, the decline in the spot price is greater than that of the futures price, resulting in the futures price being at a premium. Near the off - season storage period, if the basis is appropriate, hedging can be carried out on the futures market [23]. Spread - As of October 24, the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan/ton, weaker than - 2 yuan/ton at the end of last month. Recently, the urea futures contracts have gradually rebounded, but the upward and downward space for the 01 contract is limited, and the 05 contract is still far away. The spread is expected to fluctuate at a low level [27]. Supply - In September 2025, the urea production was 5.73867 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 190,000 tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 101,800 tons (1.8%). As of October 22, the monthly daily production calculated by Longzhong data was 185,000 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuated around 180,000 - 190,000 tons. Based on the current daily output, the production in October is expected to be 5.85 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years. With the increasing losses of gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has started to shut down. Near the winter gas - limiting season, the daily production of gas - fired plants is expected to decline next month [35]. - In November, Jiangsu Linggu and Hainan Fudao are scheduled for maintenance, each affecting a production of 2,500 tons. From 2026 to 2026, multiple enterprises are planning to put new production capacity into operation, with a total planned new capacity of 5.64 million tons/year [38]. Cost and Profit - As of October 24, the price of small - sized Jincheng anthracite was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The price of 5,500 - calorie thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan/ton from the previous month. In October, the significant temperature difference between the north and south in China increased the demand for coal. As the temperature gradually dropped, the demand for coal for winter heating increased. The environmental protection restrictions on mines continued, and major conferences boosted macro - expectations, leading to a continuous increase in the thermal coal price and stronger urea production costs. At the same time, the price of liquefied natural gas increased during the month, intensifying the losses of gas - fired plants. As of October 24, the cost of fixed - bed production was 1,917 yuan/ton, the cost of water - coal slurry production was 1,502 yuan/ton, and the cost of natural gas production was 1,971 yuan/ton. According to Longzhong's data, the theoretical profit of the coal - fired fixed - bed process was - 347 yuan/ton, the theoretical profit of the new coal - water slurry process was 58 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the gas - fired process was - 291 yuan/ton. Fixed - bed and natural gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After reaching the bottom recently, the urea price has stabilized and rebounded, and the profit has also stabilized. There is cost support below the urea futures price [42]. Inventory and Pending Orders - As of October 24, 2025, the in - factory urea inventory was 1.6302 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 457,600 tons. This month, the urea inventory increased significantly. On the one hand, during the National Day holiday, the production remained high while the downstream procurement decreased, greatly increasing the in - factory inventory. On the other hand, the agricultural demand was postponed this month, leading to an increase in the in - factory inventory. However, as the agricultural demand progresses, the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, but it is still in the inventory - accumulation cycle. It is expected that the inventory will increase moderately. The number of days of pending orders from enterprises first decreased and then increased during the month. As the autumn fertilizer season continued to progress, the pressure on enterprises for pending orders decreased [46]. Downstream Agricultural Demand - The agricultural demand for urea in the second half of the year and the fourth quarter is generally weaker than that in the first half of the year. Since the fourth quarter of this year, the weather has affected the corn harvest and wheat sowing, causing the agricultural demand to be scattered. As the autumn fertilizer season ends, the agricultural demand will become sporadic [49]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - Since this month, affected by the National Day holiday, the operating load of factories decreased significantly at the beginning of the month and then gradually increased. In the first half of the month, the changeable weather postponed the corn harvest and wheat sowing, and the terminal sales were weak. As time passed, after the agricultural demand started, the factory's finished - product inventory gradually decreased but was still slightly higher than the same period last year. Currently, the compound fertilizer plants in Northeast China are expected to gradually start production by late November. As the autumn fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate is expected to gradually increase, and the production of spring compound fertilizer will gradually start [57]. Compound Fertilizer Price - It is expected that the prices of raw materials such as sulfur, monoammonium phosphate, and ammonium chloride will rise, while the prices of potassium chloride and potassium sulfate will remain stable. The urea price has stopped falling and stabilized. The subsequent fertilizer - preparation period is expected to be based on the price fluctuations of raw materials for procurement. Currently, the production profit is lower than that of last year. Factories are mainly finishing the production of autumn fertilizers and will purchase and reserve at low prices in the future [62][63]. Other Industrial Demands - As of October 24, 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate of melamine dropped to 48.3%. The rainfall in various parts of the country this month affected the progress of terminal industries. The operating rate of melamine has also shown a seasonal decline, providing little support for urea. The real - estate data remains sluggish. It is expected that the operating load will rebound next month, but the overall increase is expected to be weaker than in previous years [67]. International Urea Market - The international urea price first decreased and then increased this month. The continuous Indian tenders provided support for the market. European countries entered the market to purchase, and the sales situation of urea in North Africa improved, with prices rising in some regions. China has exported a large amount this month, and China's export situation will still affect the international urea price [72]. Indian Tenders - On October 17, it was learned that the price of the urea tender issued by RCF on October 15 had been announced, with the lowest bid price on the east coast being $395/ton CFR. So far, there has been no change in China's urea export quota. It is estimated that China's participation in this tender will be limited, and this Indian tender price is lower than market expectations, having limited impact on the domestic urea market and causing no obvious price fluctuations [76]. Export Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the urea port inventory was 210,000 tons. Since September, the port inventory has been continuously decreasing. As the export window period ended, the port inventory has gradually been digested and is now at a relatively low level compared to the same period. There is currently no official news about changes in urea export policies. Attention should be paid to future policy trends [79].
冠通期货：11月尿素月度报告-20251027
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-10-27 11:04