天然橡胶产业周报：触底后与板块共振反弹，后期关注供应压力-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, rubber shows a strong performance, but the further driving force is limited. It should focus on macro - sentiment changes. In the medium - to - long - term, it is regarded as neutral to weak due to supply pressure and demand uncertainties [1]. - The future trend of rubber prices is expected to be volatile, with weak fundamental drivers. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term: Rubber rebounded in resonance with the crude oil and chemical sectors. The low valuation of RU, tight spot liquidity of dark - colored rubber, and certain digestion of fundamental negative factors led to the rebound. However, rubber's rebound may suppress procurement demand [1]. - Medium - to - long - term: The global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, and supply pressure will increase. Stable demand expectations require continuous macro - positive factors, and export growth faces risks [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Price Range and Trend Judgement: The reference oscillation range for RU2601 in the next week is 14,900 - 15,500; for NR2511, it is 12,100 - 12,600. It is expected to maintain oscillation in the future, with weak fundamental drivers [15]. - Strategy Recommendations: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Consider shorting at high prices for far - month contracts with protective option strategies. For basis trading, consider reverse cash - and - carry at high prices. For now, wait and see for spread arbitrage and consider widening the spread at low prices for variety arbitrage [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14,800 - 15,500; for 20 - grade rubber NR, it is 12,100 - 12,600 [20]. - Risk Management Strategies: For inventory management, short rubber futures and use options to lock in profits and reduce risks. For procurement management, buy far - month rubber futures and use options to lock in costs and reduce risks [20][22]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerns 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Tensions between the US and Russia, a significant drop in EIA inventory, and other factors drove up the prices of crude oil and the chemical sector. There was an acceleration in dry - rubber de - stocking, positive macro - economic data, and growth in global light - vehicle sales [23]. - Negative Information: Macroeconomic data such as LPR remaining unchanged, a decline in fixed - asset investment, and an increase in rubber imports put downward pressure on rubber prices [25]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Monitor rainfall in rubber - producing areas, Fed FOMC interest - rate decisions, Chinese official PMI data, EIA inventory reports, and new foreign - trade policies [27]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - Domestic Market: Rubber prices rebounded last week. RU's position increased, while NR's decreased. Short - position profits for RU and NR decreased, and net positions rebounded. Spot prices generally rebounded, and the basis and term structure of RU and NR changed [28][29][32]. - Foreign Market: The foreign - market trend was similar to that of the domestic market, with less volatility in Japanese rubber and stronger performance in Singapore's 20 - grade rubber. The term structure of Japanese and Singaporean rubber also changed [53][55]. 3.3.2 Other Analyses - Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index: Rubber sentiment fluctuated greatly last week, with a bullish sentiment. RU's virtual - to - physical ratio increased, while NR's decreased [57]. - Domestic - Foreign Spread Tracking: The spread between RU and Japanese rubber futures decreased significantly, while the spread between NR and Singaporean rubber was similar to the previous period [59]. - Variety Spread Analysis: The spread between light and dark rubber rebounded. The spread between natural and synthetic rubber slightly adjusted [62][71]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - Raw Material Costs: Domestic raw - material prices rebounded. In Thailand, water and cup - rubber prices remained stable, and the spread between them slightly narrowed [77]. - Processing Profits: The delivery profit of whole - latex remained low, and the profit of TSR9710 decreased. The processing and import profits of imported rubber showed different trends [85][86][89]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - Production in Major Producing Countries: Thailand's production is expected to increase smoothly, Indonesia's production may slightly decrease, and Malaysia's production may be affected by weather and low rubber prices. Vietnam's production and exports are affected by weather and tariffs [90]. - Import Situation: In September, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of Thai standard rubber decreased, while that of Thai mixed rubber increased [94][95]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - Total Demand in Major Producing Countries: In August, China's actual consumption of natural rubber was stable year - on - year, while the demand in other major producing countries decreased [104]. - Tire Production and Sales: After the holiday, tire - enterprise capacity utilization increased. Tire exports showed strong resilience but decreased month - on - month [107]. - Replacement Demand: The domestic logistics industry is stable, but fixed - asset investment may suppress replacement demand in the long run [112]. - Supporting Demand: Domestic automobile sales were good, and tire supporting demand was stable. However, long - term tire supporting demand from trucks may be limited [115]. - Overseas Tire Production and Demand: Japanese tire production was stable, and Thai tire shipments increased. US tire imports increased, and European passenger - car production and sales were stable [126][129]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - Futures Inventory: RU warehouse receipts continued to decline, while NR warehouse receipts increased [133]. - Social Inventory: As of October 26, 2025, Qingdao's natural - rubber inventory decreased, with changes in inbound and outbound rates [136].