黑色金属周报：钢材宏观预期改善，钢价低位修复-20251027

Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products [1] - Date: October 27, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Bai Jing [3] - Industry: Black Metal (Steel) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro expectations have improved, leading to a low - level repair of steel prices. The current supply is relatively high, which suppresses price rebounds. Although hot - rolled coil production and sales have marginally improved, the demand side is weak, and the supply - demand gap remains at a high level. The short - term steel price is expected to oscillate and repair at a low level [6][7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.1.1 Steel Production and Inventory - The overall output of the five major steel products increased by 8.37 tons. The factory inventory of the five major products decreased by 1.27 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 26.14 tons. The apparent demand was 892.73 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.32 tons [6]. - The output of rebar this week was 207.07 tons (+5.91), including 179.14 tons of long - process production (+4.41) and 27.93 tons of short - process production (+1.5) [55]. - The output of hot - rolled coil this week was 322.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 tons. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 326.73 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.18 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 0.5 tons, the social inventory decreased by 3.77 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 4.27 tons [76]. - The original sample rebar factory inventory was 184.63 tons (-0.01), the social inventory was 437.48 tons (-18.93), and the total inventory was 622.11 tons (-18.94) [73]. 3.1.2 Production Capacity and Utilization - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 89.9% (-0.39, -0.43% week - on - week), and the daily average molten iron output was 239.9 tons (-1.05, -0.44% week - on - week) [40]. - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric arc furnace plants was 33.2% (-1.2) [43]. 3.1.3 Scrap Steel - As of October 23, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 33.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 51.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94 tons. The daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 24.9 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 tons. The short - process daily consumption was 16.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 tons, a decrease of 3.3%. The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 48.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.41 tons, a decrease of 6.6%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 473.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.06 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [7]. 3.1.4 Market Demand - Construction steel trading volume and cement mill operating rate can reflect market demand to some extent. The national cement mill operating rate increased by 1.76 percentage points to 43.99% week - on - week [67]. 3.2 Macro Data 3.2.1 Steel Output - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared with 2023. From January to September 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 646 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the same period in 2024; the cumulative crude steel output was 746 million tons, a decrease of 2.9% compared with the same period in 2024 [15]. 3.2.2 Economic Indicators - In September 2025, the PMI was 49.8%. The production index was 51.9%, the new order index was 49.7%, and the new export order index was 47.8% [20]. - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 4.65% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 1.92% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 21.28% year - on - year [25]. - From January to September, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The newly started floor area of housing was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The completed floor area of housing was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [28]. 3.3 Market Structure and Strategy 3.3.1 Price Spreads - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widened [37]. - As of October 24, the price difference between cold - rolled and hot - rolled steel in Shanghai was 590 yuan/ton (+20) [83]. 3.3.2 Export Situation - As of October 24, China's FOB export price was 440 US dollars (-20), and the export profit was - 27.5 US dollars (-24.4). The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 2.3221 million tons (-0.646 million), a week - on - week increase of 37.5% [88].