冠通期货研究报告：2025年11月沥青月度报告-20251027

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that asphalt futures prices will follow the trend of crude oil prices, showing a pattern of rising first and then falling in November. It suggests paying attention to crude oil price fluctuations and winter stockpiling situations [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Supply - Side - Last week, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [3]. - In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons month - on - month (a 16.9% decrease) and a decrease of 274,000 tons year - on - year (an 11.0% decrease) [3]. - The asphalt炼厂库存存货比 decreased slightly week - on - week and remains at the lowest level in recent years [3]. - Qilu Petrochemical's refinery is in stable production, and asphalt output will increase slightly [3]. 3.2 Demand - Side - As of the week of October 24, most downstream industries'开工率 of asphalt increased. The road asphalt开工率 increased by 3 percentage points to 32% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas [3][47]. - From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared to January - July 2025 but remained negative [47]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% from January to August 2025, but still in negative growth [42]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of pavers increased by 11.86% month - on - month to 132 units, reaching a neutral level in recent years [42]. 3.3 Market Conditions - In October, crude oil rebounded significantly from a low level. The asphalt/crude oil ratio first rose and then fell, slightly dropping from 7.14 at the end of September to 7.13 [10]. - In October, the asphalt基差 first rose and then fell. As of August 28, the mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,340 yuan/ton, and the基差 of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to 53 yuan/ton, at a neutral - to - high level [14]. - As of the week of October 21, the supply from refineries in the East China region increased, and their shipments increased significantly. The national shipments increased by 14.73% week - on - week to 290,700 tons, at a neutral level [3][26]. 3.4 Historical Data (September 2025) - In September, the asphalt开工率 increased by 4.92 percentage points to 35.66% month - on - month and 9.63 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In Shandong, the开工率 increased by 6.66 percentage points to 40.4% month - on - month and 13.61 percentage points year - on - year [18]. - In September, the asphalt output increased by 9.09% to 2.7563 million tons month - on - month and 37.64% year - on - year, at a neutral level in recent years. The output of local refineries was 1.558 million tons, an increase of 17.76% month - on - month and 42.95% year - on - year [22]. - In September, the apparent consumption of asphalt increased by 11.16% to 3.018 million tons month - on - month and 39.55% year - on - year [26].