Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-27 11:22Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Views - Corn: With the approaching harvest season, the supply of new corn is increasing, putting downward pressure on prices. In the US, although the estimated yield per unit is lower than the previous forecast, the overall supply pressure is still increasing. In China, the harvest progress in the Northeast has exceeded 40%, and the yield per unit has increased significantly. However, the trading volume is slow, and the purchase price has declined slightly. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the purchase price has continued to weaken due to high moisture and low-quality new grain. The corn futures price has fallen again, and the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [2][3]. - Corn Starch: The increase in the supply of raw corn has weakened the cost support for corn starch. The substitution advantage of tapioca starch has continued to squeeze the market demand for corn starch. However, the industry's operating rate has been lower than the same period in previous years, and the supply pressure is not significant. Recently, the company's orders and shipments have been good, and the inventory has slightly declined. The starch market is still in a bearish trend, and a bearish strategy is maintained [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active contract was 2112 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the monthly spread (1 - 5) was -16 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract was 13,618 lots, and the net long position of the top 20 traders was -78,853 lots, down 5,574 lots; the registered warehouse receipts were 0 lots [2]. - Corn Starch: The closing price of the active contract was 2425 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the monthly spread (11 - 1) was 24 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active contract was 211,606 lots, down 74 lots; the net long position of the top 20 traders was -58,907 lots; the registered warehouse receipts were 61,968 lots [2]. - CS - C Spread: The spread of the main contract was 348 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. Outer Market - CBOT Corn: The closing price of the active contract was 424 cents/bushel, down 3.75 cents; the total position was 1,543,065 contracts, up 13,269 contracts; the non - commercial net long position was -51,186 contracts, down 15,017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price was 2242.55 yuan/ton, down 6.08 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn was 1982.02 yuan/ton, up 0.37 yuan; the international freight of imported corn was 0 US dollars/ton [2]. - Corn Starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun was 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang was 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was 85 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - Substitute Products: The average spot price of wheat was 2475 yuan/ton, up 8.83 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 298 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder was -193 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Sowing Area and Yield Forecast: The sowing area in the US was 42.711 million hectares, and the yield was 36.44 million tons, up 0.55 million tons; in Brazil, the sowing area was not provided, and the yield was 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina, the sowing area was 5.3 million hectares, and the yield was 7.5 million tons, unchanged; in China, the sowing area was 29.5 million hectares, and the yield was 44.3 million tons, unchanged; in Ukraine, the yield was 32 million tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: The inventory at southern ports was 9.3 million tons; at northern ports was 11 million tons; the deep - processing inventory was 203.6 million tons, down 8.2 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises was 114 million tons, down 5.9 million tons [2]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of corn was 2 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch was 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed was 201.5 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn was 4.02 million tons [2]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises was 61.67%, up 8.48%; the operating rate of starch enterprises was 55.62%, down 1.12% [2]. - Processing Profit: The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong was 135 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; in Hebei was 84 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin was 95 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Option Market - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of corn was 8.91%, up 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 7.15%, up 0.23% [2]. - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn was 13.1%, up 3.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.1%, up 3.33% [2]. Industry News - The US government shutdown has led to the suspension of the release of the CFTC's position report and the USDA's crop progress report, causing cautious trading in the market [2]. - As of October 22, the sown area of corn in Argentina in the 2025/26 season accounted for 33.8% of the total expected area, 3.9% higher than a week ago [2]. Key Points of Attention - The weekly consumption of corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel [3]