Report Title - "Black Metal Weekly Report - Iron Ore" [1] Report Date - October 27, 2025 [3] Report Author - Bai Jing, with the industry qualification number F03097282 and investment consulting certificate number Z0018999 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - High basis restricts the downward momentum, and the iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 95 (756) - 105 (836) US dollars [6][10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Fundamental Analysis and Conclusions - Price Trends: Last week, the mainstream spot prices of iron ore were consolidating. The prices of some varieties such as PB powder (+1), BRBF (+2), and Super Special powder (+2) increased slightly, while others like Carajás fines (-25) and PB lump (-3) decreased. As of October 24, the Platts 62% index closed at $105.15, down $0.15 week - on - week, equivalent to about 871 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.12. The optimal deliverable product was NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 775 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 800 yuan/ton [7] - Inventory Situation: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China increased week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 15,109.49 tons, an increase of 148 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 501 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 937 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at 47 ports may increase in the next period [7] - Supply Side: - Shipping: The global iron ore shipping volume in this period was 33.884 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 548,000 tons. The shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 28.445 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.045 million tons. Australia's shipping volume was 19.195 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,000 tons, of which the volume shipped to China was 16.253 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 9.251 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.007 million tons [8] - Arrival: From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 20.843 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.92 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 20.291 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.903 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.959 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.073 million tons [8] - Demand Side: In this period, 4 blast furnaces were newly shut down for maintenance, and 6 blast furnaces resumed production, mainly in the Northeast, Hebei, and Shanxi regions. Due to environmental protection issues in Hebei, the supply of sinter decreased, and some steel mills reduced production. In addition, due to the continuous decline in finished product prices, the loss range of steel mills further expanded, and the profit rate dropped to the lowest level this year. From 12:00 on October 27, heavy pollution weather level - II emergency responses were launched in some cities in Hebei, and some steel mills in Tangshan extended the sintering machine production restriction time to the end of October, with blast furnaces shutting down 30% of their production capacity according to the production capacity [9] - Conclusion: From a fundamental perspective, the iron ore shipping volume continued to recover week - on - week and was at a seasonal high, while the arrival volume decreased significantly week - on - week. The iron ore output continued to decline slightly in this period, and it is expected to continue to decline during the environmental protection production restriction in Hebei from the 27th to the end of the month. After the production restriction is lifted, the output is expected to recover. In terms of valuation, the recent continuous contraction of the spot and futures profit per ton of steel has an impact on the raw material price fluctuation rhythm. The high basis restricts the decline range, and the market may show a volatile trend in the short term [10] Part 2: Data Sorting - Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price: As of October 24, the optimal deliverable product was Newman powder, with a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 800 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal deliverable product was PB powder with a converted warehouse receipt of about 809 yuan/ton [15] - Iron Ore Inter - period Spread: As of October 24, the spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 closed at 20.5 (- 0.5) [18] - Iron Ore Premium Index: As of October 23, the premium index of 62.5% lump ore was 0.1285 (- 0.0155), and the premium index of 65% pellet was 17.75 (-) [28] - Steel Mill Sintered Powder Inventory: The inventory of imported sintered powder in 64 sample steel mills decreased by 0.03% week - on - week, and the inventory of domestic sintered powder decreased by 1.84% week - on - week. The average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 4.76% week - on - week [34] - 247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory & Daily Consumption: The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.07% week - on - week, the daily consumption decreased by 0.30% week - on - week, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased by 1.39% week - on - week [37] - Port Inventory & Berthing: The total inventory at 45 ports, Australian ore inventory, Brazilian ore inventory, and trade ore inventory at ports showed certain trends. The berthing ship number at 47 ports also had corresponding changes [40] - Port Inventory by Ore Type: The inventory of imported port lump ore increased by 7.82% week - on - week, the inventory of pellet ore increased by 3.97% week - on - week, the inventory of iron concentrate increased by 12.92% week - on - week, and the inventory of coarse powder decreased by 1.20% week - on - week [43] - Shipping Volume of Major Iron Ore Producers: - Australia: The shipping volume from Australia to China increased by 8.82% week - on - week, and the total shipping volume from Australia increased by 3.32% week - on - week [59] - Brazil: The shipping volume from Brazil to the world increased by 1.45% week - on - week [64] - Four Major Mines: The shipping volume of Rio Tinto to China increased by 11.36% week - on - week, BHP Billiton decreased by 16.30% week - on - week, Vale increased by 5.91% week - on - week, and FMG increased by 30.33% week - on - week [65] - Iron Ore Arrival: The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 19.5% week - on - week, and the arrival volume at northern ports decreased by 8.9% week - on - week [72] - Domestic Iron Ore Production: The inventory of iron concentrate in mines decreased by 3.16% week - on - week, and the production increased by 0.15% week - on - week [77] - Steel Mill Powder Consumption & Capacity Utilization: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.43% week - on - week, the daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.44% week - on - week, the daily consumption of imported sintered powder increased by 3.22% week - on - week, and the daily consumption of domestic sintered powder decreased by 1.81% week - on - week [78] - Pig Iron Production: The daily average pig iron output data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association showed certain trends, with different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [83] - Global Pig Iron Production: The pig iron production data of different regions such as the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, and the world showed different trends [86] - Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production: The pig iron production outside China had corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [90]
黑色金属周报：铁矿：高基差限制下跌动能，震荡运行-20251027
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-10-27 11:18