冠通期货：11月沪铜月度报告-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: At the beginning of the month, the US government shutdown increased market uncertainty, leading to a significant rise in copper prices. Recent talks between China, the US, and Malaysia created an optimistic market outlook, and the US inflation data CPI was slower than expected, prompting the market to continue trading on interest - rate cut expectations. China's Fourth Plenary Session set the tone for the "15th Five - Year Plan", reaffirming the focus on economic development, but there is no obvious policy guidance affecting copper prices for now [6]. - Supply aspect: Accidents and shutdowns at mines such as Indonesia's Grasberg, Chile's El Teniente, and Congo's Kamoa - Kakula led to a global shortage of copper concentrate supply. Domestic copper mine inventories have been declining, and high TC/RC fees are driving up copper prices. In September 2025, refined copper production was 1.266 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase and a 2.7% month - on - month decrease. Production in November may continue to decline due to planned maintenance at five smelters and a continuous shortage of anode plates. High copper prices have dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, but overall inventory is still at a low level, supporting the upward trend of copper prices [6]. - Demand aspect: The apparent consumption of copper was 14,565 tons. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectations for copper are obvious, with continuous growth in apparent consumption. The explosion of energy - storage battery orders has boosted copper demand, and the expected improvement in industrial demand, as well as the rapid development of new energy and AI, are also driving copper demand. Although high copper prices have curbed downstream purchasing willingness, rigid demand still exists [6]. - Overall: At the beginning of the month, due to macro - economic uncertainty, market risk - aversion sentiment was high, and non - ferrous metals prices rose. After the holiday, copper prices opened higher and continued to rise. With mild US inflation data and an optimistic global demand outlook during the interest - rate cut cycle, combined with a tight supply situation in the copper mine sector and rigid demand, copper prices remain strong [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Environment - US inflation: In September, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% month - on - month, lower than August's 0.4%; year - on - year, it rose 3.0%, slightly higher than the previous value but lower than market expectations. The core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, falling for the third consecutive month, and the year - on - year increase also dropped to 3.0%. The mild inflation paves the way for a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in October [10]. - China's economic indicators: In September, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight acceleration in China's overall economic output [14]. Copper Supply - Side Data Copper Concentrate Supply - Inventory and imports: As of October 24, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports was 404,000 tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons from the previous month. In September 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2,586,873.52 tons, a 6.24% month - on - month decrease and a 6.43% year - on - year increase. Imports from Chile decreased, while those from Peru increased [21]. - Mine incidents: In 2025, incidents at major mines such as Indonesia's Grasberg led to a global shortage of copper concentrate supply, driving up copper prices [21]. Smelter Fees - TC/RC fees: As of October 24, China's spot TC was - 42.6 dollars per dry ton, and RC was - 4.45 cents per pound. In mid - 2025, the TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters was 0.0 dollars per dry ton and 0.0 cents per pound [25]. - Smelter situation: After the decline in sulfuric acid prices, there has been a recent increase, which helps smelters reduce losses, but losses are still intensifying. Small and medium - sized smelters are gradually exiting the market. Smelter maintenance in September - October supports copper prices [25]. Refined Copper Supply - Production: In September 2025, refined copper production was 1.266 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase and a 2.7% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative production from January to September was 11.125 million tons, a 10.0% year - on - year increase. Production in November may continue to decline due to maintenance plans and a shortage of anode plates [29]. - Imports and exports: In September 2025, China imported 333,100 tons of unwrought refined copper cathodes and cathode profiles, a 26.46% month - on - month increase and a 2.90% year - on - year increase; from January to September, cumulative imports were 2.5509 million tons, a 4.07% year - on - year decrease. Exports were 26,400 tons, an 81.47% year - on - year increase and a 28.15% month - on - month decrease; cumulative exports from January to September were 489,500 tons, a 17.29% year - on - year increase [29]. Scrap Copper Supply - Imports: In September 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and waste were 184,100 physical tons, a 2.63% month - on - month increase and a 14.8% year - on - year increase. Cumulative imports from January to September were 1.699 million tons, a 1.38% year - on - year increase [34]. - Policy impact: After the issuance of the "Notice on Implementing Policies Related to Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors", the implementation of the policy is expected to be clear after the tax - payment date on the 27th. It may affect scrap copper production in the future [34]. Copper Demand Conditions Apparent Demand - Consumption: As of September 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 14,565 tons. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectations are obvious, with continuous growth in apparent consumption. Energy - storage battery orders and the development of new energy and AI are driving copper demand, and rigid demand exists despite high prices [42]. Copper Products - Copper rod: In September 2025, the actual output of domestic refined copper rods was 1 million tons, a 0.18% month - on - month increase and a 2.86% year - on - year increase. In October 2025, the expected output is 952,300 tons, a 4.77% month - on - month decrease and a 1.77% year - on - year increase [48]. - Copper tube: Due to the continuous decline in air - conditioner host factory production schedules and high copper prices, the copper tube开工率 is expected to remain poor from September to November, and copper tube enterprises may reduce their purchasing pace [48]. - Copper foil: The demand for electronic circuit copper foil is rising steadily, but the impact of high - price raw materials needs to be monitored [48]. Grid Project Data - Investment: From January to September this year, the State Grid completed fixed - asset investment of over 420 billion yuan, an 8.1% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the annual investment will exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time this year [52]. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - Real estate: From January to September, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a 9.4% year - on - year decrease. The new construction area was 453.99 million square meters, an 18.9% year - on - year decrease. The completed area was 311.29 million square meters, a 15.3% year - on - year decrease [57]. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - Sales: From October 1 to October 19, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 632,000 units, a 5% year - on - year increase and a 2% month - on - month increase, with a retail penetration rate of 56.1%. The wholesale volume was 676,000 units, a 6% year - on - year increase and a 5% month - on - month increase, with a wholesale penetration rate of 58.5%. From January to September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million units respectively, a 35.2% and 34.9% year - on - year increase [61]. Copper Inventory Data Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - LME and COMEX: As of October 24, 2025, LME copper inventory was 136,400 tons, a 5.82% month - on - month decrease and a 51.01% year - on - year decrease. COMEX copper inventory was 348,000 tons, a 9.34% month - on - month increase and a 321.88% year - on - year increase [68]. - SHFE and bonded area: As of October 24, 2025, SHFE electrolytic copper inventory was 35,100 tons, a 5.35% month - on - month increase and a 36.85% year - on - year decrease. The bonded - area inventory continued to increase due to continuous arrivals of import and export goods at the domestic smelting end and a poor import price ratio [73].