冠通期货研究报告：2025年11月原油月度报告-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation, but the price is expected to rebound from the low level in the near term and show a trend of first rising and then falling in November. Attention should be paid to changes in Russian crude oil exports after sanctions and the APEC leaders' informal meeting [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. Although the EIA data shows a rebound in the operating rate of US refineries and unexpected destocking of crude oil and refined oil in the US, the overall oil inventory has decreased. India may gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. Russia has extended the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year, but its crude oil export volume remains high. The EIA and IEA predict an increase in global oil inventory and an intensification of the oil surplus. The market is worried about crude oil demand, but due to the US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the change in the US - Russia relationship, the crude oil price is expected to rebound first and then decline in November [3] 3.2 Market Review - In October, the domestic crude oil price declined. On October 5, OPEC+ planned to increase production, the geopolitical risk cooled, and the Sino - US trade friction escalated, leading to a continuous decline in the price. In late October, after the Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the US sanctions on Russian oil companies, the price rebounded from the low level [7] 3.3 Crude Oil Position and Warehouse Receipt Situation - The net position of WTI in October was not announced. The net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds continued to decline in October. As of the week of October 14, it decreased by 37,794 contracts to 109,606 contracts, a decrease of 25.64%, and a decrease of 47.58% compared with the end of September. As of October 23, the Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 190,000 barrels to 5.211 million barrels compared with the end of September and remained at a relatively low level [10][11] 3.4 Crude Oil Production - OPEC's August crude oil production was revised down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its September 2025 production increased by 524,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the increase in production in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The US crude oil production in the week of October 10 decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day, close to the historical high level [15] 3.5 Oil Drilling Rigs - In October, the number of US oil drilling rigs showed a decreasing trend again. As of the week of October 17, the number was 418, a decrease of 6 compared with the week of September 26 [19] 3.6 US Crude Oil Imports and Exports - As of the week of October 17, the US crude oil imports increased by 393,000 barrels per day to 5.918 million barrels per day, at a neutral level in the same period of previous years; the US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day, at a slightly higher - than - neutral level in the same period of previous years [23] 3.7 China's Crude Oil Processing Volume and Imports - China's September crude oil processing volume decreased by 1.23% month - on - month to 62.687 million tons, an increase of 6.80% year - on - year, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 3.70%. China's September crude oil imports decreased by 4.53% month - on - month to 47.25 million tons, an increase of 3.90% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.60% [27] 3.8 US Dollar Index - In September, the US CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than expected but still the highest since June 2024; it increased by 0.3% month - on - month, lower than August and market expectations. The US White House may not release inflation data next month. On October 30, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [31] 3.9 Gasoline Crack Spread - In October, after the end of the summer consumption peak season, the US and European gasoline crack spreads decreased by $1.5 per barrel and $1.0 per barrel respectively. Affected by Russian sanctions, the US and European diesel crack spreads increased by $1.5 per barrel and $2.0 per barrel respectively [35] 3.10 US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - The EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025. Different organizations have different adjustments to global oil demand and supply growth rates, and the oil supply surplus has intensified. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.474 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.24% compared with the same period last year. Gasoline and diesel demand decreased month - on - month, but the increase in other oil products drove the single - week supply of US crude oil products to increase by 1.46% month - on - month [39] 3.11 Crude Oil Inventory - As of the week of October 17, the US crude oil inventory decreased by 961,000 barrels, with an expected increase of 1.205 million barrels, and was 3.67% lower than the five - year average. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 770,000 barrels to 21.231 million barrels, at a near - record low in the same period in recent years. The US gasoline inventory decreased by 2.147 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 809,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 819,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels, the highest since the week of October 7, 2022. The US plans to purchase 1 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve [43][47] 3.12 Geopolitical Risks - The US Treasury has blacklisted Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. The US is deploying the "Ford" aircraft carrier strike group to the Latin American waters. Palestinian factions agree to establish a governing body for the Gaza Strip, and Pakistan and Afghanistan hold talks on a cease - fire [49]