Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on non - ferrous metals, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Market Analysis of Each Metal Copper - Market Review: The Shanghai Copper 2512 contract closed at 88,370 yuan/ton, up 1.73%, with an increase of 29,581 lots in the Shanghai Copper Index to 613,100 lots. The spot copper price soared, weakening downstream procurement sentiment, and the spot discount widened [1] - Important Information: The slowdown of the US core CPI in September increased the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. SMM estimated that the electrolytic copper output in October would drop to 1.0825 million tons [1][3] - Logic Analysis: Macro sentiment improved, and the supply of copper ore was tight, while consumption was weak with some resilience. The market was expected to have an increase in supply and weak demand this week [1][3] - Trading Strategy: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market positive spreads, and consider cross - period positive spreads after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [4][5][6] Alumina - Market Review: The alumina 2601 contract rose 11 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,441 lots to 488,900 lots. The spot price showed a narrow decline [7] - Related Information: Xinjiang and Shandong had alumina spot transactions. The national alumina inventory increased by 44,000 tons to 4.061 million tons as of October 23. The Australian alumina price decreased [8] - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand surplus of alumina increased after the downstream stocking was completed. The price was expected to bottom out in the short term, and a rebound might occur if production cuts expanded [11] - Trading Strategy: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November for single - side trading, with a short - term narrow rebound. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [11][12] Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract rose 130 yuan to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 28,105 lots to 635,200 lots. The spot price increased [14] - Related Information: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. Some overseas aluminum smelters had production cuts. The electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased slightly [14][15] - Logic Analysis: Macro sentiment was positive. Overseas supply was tight, and domestic consumption had some resilience [18] - Trading Strategy: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the external market for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [19] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 35 yuan to 20,715 yuan/ton. The spot price remained stable [21] - Related Information: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and the import and export data showed certain changes [21][22][24] - Logic Analysis: Macro factors were positive. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and demand had some support [25] - Trading Strategy: The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the aluminum price for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [26][27] Zinc - Market Review: The Shanghai Zinc 2512 rose 0.34% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 94 lots to 213,500 lots. The spot trading was not improved [29] - Related Information: The domestic zinc inventory increased slightly. Shengda Resources' subsidiary was approved to resume work [30] - Logic Analysis: The domestic supply was abundant, and the external market was strong. The export profit widened, and the Shanghai Zinc price was likely to rise [31][33] - Trading Strategy: Try to go long on dips for single - side trading. Consider a buy - SHFE and sell - LME strategy based on export conditions. Sell out - of - the - money put options [34] Lead - Market Review: The Shanghai Lead 2512 fell 0.06% to 17,520 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 6,702 lots to 129,200 lots. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [36] - Related Information: A large lead - battery enterprise in East China planned to cut production. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased [37] - Logic Analysis: The short - term lead price was driven up by funds, but the medium - long - term fundamentals were under pressure [38] - Trading Strategy: Go short on rallies for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [39] Nickel - Market Review: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2512 rose 420 to 122,400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 12,478 lots. The spot premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [41] - Important Information: Indonesia promoted a cooperation project with Huayou Cobalt. A new nickel brand applied for LME certification. Norilsk Nickel maintained its 2025 production forecast [42] - Logic Analysis: Macro sentiment improved, but the LME nickel inventory limited the upward space of the nickel price. The price was expected to fluctuate within a range [42] - Trading Strategy: The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract for options [43][44][45] Stainless Steel - Market Review: The stainless - steel main contract SS2512 rose 10 to 12,815 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 27,223 lots. The spot price was stable [47] - Important Information: The export of Indonesian stainless steel to Taiwan increased, and a high - end stainless - steel project in Jiangsu was progressing [49] - Logic Analysis: Terminal demand was not optimistic at the end of the peak season, and the cost support was not strong. The price was boosted by the reduction of warehouse receipts and general commodity price increases [49] - Trading Strategy: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with attention to the upper resistance. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage [50][51] Tin - Market Review: The Shanghai Tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 3,260 yuan/ton or 1.15%, and the position increased by 6,739 lots to 75,935 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the trading was not active [53] - Related Information: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The US CPI growth was lower than expected. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [54][56] - Logic Analysis: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and domestic policies were positive for the tin price, but the terminal demand recovery was slow. The supply of tin ore was tight [57] - Trading Strategy: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive domestic macro expectations and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [58][59] Industrial Silicon - Important Information: The industrial silicon export volume in September was 70,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8%. The import volume in January - September decreased by 64% year - on - year [61] - Logic Analysis: The production in the northwest was at a high level, and the southwest would reduce production in November. The demand was stable, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [62] - Strategy Suggestion: Go long on dips for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [64][65][66] Polysilicon - Important Information: The domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to September was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49% [68] - Logic Analysis: The polysilicon production in the southwest would decrease in November. The demand for silicon wafers was average, and there was a possibility of inventory accumulation. The price was expected to strengthen after capacity integration [69] - Strategy Suggestion: Hold long positions for single - side trading, conduct reverse spreads on far - month contracts for arbitrage, and hold long call options [70][71][72] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 2,020 to 81,900 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 50,361 lots. The spot price increased [74] - Important Information: The performance of Salt Lake Co., Ltd., EVE Energy, and Shengxin Lithium Energy was announced. Whengsheng Technology achieved large - scale supply of battery materials [75][77] - Logic Analysis: The demand was driven by the growth of power and energy storage, and the supply of lithium ore was tight. The inventory and warehouse receipts decreased. The market was bullish [77] - Trading Strategy: Buy on pullbacks for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78] Group 3: Data Tables and Graphs - The report also provides daily data tables for each metal, including price, spread, inventory, and other information, as well as graphs showing the trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [80][91]
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20251027
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-27 11:28