Hopewind(SH:603063) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-27 11:25Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 27, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team - Analyst: Zhang Xuan [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The coal and coke market shows a strong performance. Near the off - season, steel demand weakens marginally, steel prices decline under pressure, and steel mill profits shrink. The potential negative feedback risk restricts the short - term rebound height of coal and coke prices. However, if the supply of coking coal tightens in the fourth quarter and the winter storage demand is released in mid - to late November, the overall valuation center of the black market is expected to move up, and coal and coke are suitable as long - allocation varieties in the black market [4]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Double - Coking Price Range Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 1100 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 36.62% and a historical percentile of 71.00%. For coke, it is 1550 - 1850, with a volatility of 29.62% and a historical percentile of 63.17% [3]. - Risk Management Strategy: For inventory hedging, when steel mill profits contract marginally and coking enterprises face difficulties in price increases, they can short the J2601 coke contract at different entry intervals and with different hedging ratios. For procurement management, considering factors such as macro - sentiment fluctuations and coking coal supply disturbances, coking plants can long the JM2605 coking coal contract at different entry intervals and with different hedging ratios [3]. 2. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes: The quantities of warehouse receipts for various black commodities on October 27, 2025, showed different changes compared with previous days. For example, the warehouse receipt quantity of hot - rolled coils decreased by 32,398 tons day - on - day, and the warehouse receipt quantity of iron ore decreased by 500 hands week - on - week [4]. - Market Analysis: The coking coal market has a tight supply situation, and the coke price may be strong in the short term. The steel market is under pressure due to weakening demand and high inventory, and steel mill profits are shrinking. The potential negative feedback risk affects the coal and coke market. The implementation of the temporary production - restriction plan in Tangshan may relieve local steel inventory pressure, but the impact on coking coal supply is limited [4]. 3. Coal and Coke Market Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: In the fourth quarter, domestic mine production is restricted by policies, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. The winter storage scale in 2025 is expected to be better than that in 2024. The downstream replenishment and supply reduction in some areas improve the coking coal inventory structure, and the short - term coke price may be strong [4][6]. - Negative Factors: The steel inventory pressure is large in the short term, and if the steel profit situation deteriorates, it may trigger a negative feedback risk in the black market [7]. 4. Coal and Coke Price Data - Futures Price: The report provides the daily and weekly price changes of coking coal and coke futures, including warehouse receipt costs, basis, and price differences between different contracts [8]. - Spot Price: It shows the price changes of various coking coal and coke spot varieties, as well as import and export profits and other data [9][10]. 5. Graphical Data - The report includes multiple graphs such as double - coking historical volatility percentiles, coking coal and coke term - structure spread graphs, and various seasonal graphs related to coal and coke prices, warehouse receipt inventories, and import profits [11][12][37]