钢铁期货主力合约利润已跌至2015年以来的低位：金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.10.20-10.26）-20251027

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Views - The profitability of steel futures has dropped to its lowest level since 2015, indicating significant pressure on the steel industry [2][44] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to regulatory support for the industry [4] Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in September was -1.2 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [12] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for September 2025 was 47.58, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.61% [19] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The price of asphalt has reached a new low since February 2022, indicating challenges in the infrastructure sector [23] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 89.94%, down 0.39 percentage points from the previous week [44] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, suggesting strong demand in the tire sector [73] - The prices of major commodities showed mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel down 0.51% and copper up 1.94% [2] Sub-sectors - The main contract profit for steel futures has fallen to its lowest level since 2015, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments in the sector [2][44] - The price of graphite electrodes remains stable at 18,000 yuan/ton, with a comprehensive gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 4.26% [2] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in September 2025 was 47.80%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points [4] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 992.74 points, up 2.02% from the previous week [4] Valuation Levels - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.53, indicating potential undervaluation [4] - The report notes that the cyclical sector, particularly oil and petrochemicals, has shown the best performance with a 4.33% increase [4]