锂矿低库存碰撞复产预期，能否与下游共振决定了锂价当前走向

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current direction of lithium prices is determined by whether the low inventory of lithium ore collides with the resumption of production expectations and resonates with the downstream. The market has three major variables: lithium ore inventory, the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo, and the downstream production schedule in November. Whether the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November can resonate with the downstream production schedule is the key to the unilateral price movement [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Report Summary - Fundamentals: Domestic lithium concentrate inventory remains low, and the price of spodumene has risen significantly in the past week. The resumption of production at Jianxiaowo is uncertain. After the expiration of the LC2510 contract, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have flowed out, and the basis has weakened. The social inventory is still high, and the spot market is relatively calm. In the case of tight upstream lithium ore, the production schedule in November is crucial [3]. - Market Summary: The market was strong last week. The futures contract price is at an important pressure level, and it is difficult to digest the upward selling pressure without significant marginal changes. The futures market sentiment is high, but the spot price is calm. The basis has weakened significantly, presenting a short - term opportunity in the term market. The unilateral price can go up or down, mainly depending on whether the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November can resonate with the downstream production schedule [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet: In September 2025, the supply was 87,260 tons, the demand was 116,801 tons, the import volume was 20,000 tons, the export volume was 410 tons, and the inventory decreased by 9,951 tons. There was an inventory increase in August and significant inventory reduction in September [6][8]. - Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet: In September 2025, the supply was 27,470 tons, the demand was 24,715 tons, the import volume was 800 tons, the export volume was 7,200 tons, and the inventory decreased by 3,645 tons [9][11]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price - Spodumene Import: In September 2025, the total import volume was 520,514 tons, with an average import price of $684 per ton. Australia was the main source of imports, with an import volume of 347,215 tons and an average price of $734 per ton [13][17]. - Chinese Lithium Ore: In September 2025, the output of lithium mica was 8,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.24%, and the output of spodumene was 6,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.95%. The lithium mica end still has uncertainties [18][23]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price - Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices: In the short term, the improvement in demand has boosted the futures price. As of October 24, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,500 yuan per ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,000 yuan per ton [26][28]. - Production Cost and Profit: The import ore price has risen significantly recently. As of October 24, 2025, the production cost of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 68,855 yuan per ton, and the production profit was 9,645 yuan per ton [39][43]. - Lithium Carbonate Production: In September 2025, the total production of lithium carbonate was 87,260 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. Lithium辉石 was the main raw material for production [44][53]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The next important node is the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November. As of September 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate of lithium salt was 55%, and the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 68% [54][58]. - Lithium Carbonate Monthly Import Volume: In September 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,597 tons, with 6,948 tons from Argentina and 10,797 tons from Chile [59][63]. - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: After the expiration of the LC2510 contract, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have flowed out, but the overall social inventory is still high [3][64]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate: In September 2025, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 356,750 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.00% and a month - on - month increase of 12.75%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.00% [70][74]. - Ternary Materials Production and Capacity Utilization Rate: In September 2025, the production of ternary materials was 75,360 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.50% and a month - on - month increase of 2.60%. The capacity utilization rate was not provided for this month, but in August it was 48% [75][79]. - Ternary Materials Import and Export Volume: In August 2025, the import volume of ternary materials was 5,567 tons, the export volume was 13,352 tons, and the net import volume was - 7,785 tons [80][84]. - New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales: The report provides data on the production of new energy vehicles, including pure - electric vehicles and plug - in hybrid vehicles, but specific analysis is not provided [85].