有色日报：铜领涨有色-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Today, Shanghai copper opened higher in the morning and maintained a strong intraday oscillation, with the open interest rising continuously. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee last week, the macro - atmosphere improved significantly. A preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino - US trade talks over the weekend. Against the backdrop of supply contraction in the industry and continuous improvement in both domestic and overseas macro - environments, copper prices continued to rise with increasing positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 2024 high of LME copper [6]. - Today, Shanghai aluminum opened higher in the morning and then retraced, and oscillated upwards during the day, with the open interest rising continuously. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee last week and a preliminary consensus in the Sino - US trade talks over the weekend, the domestic macro - environment continued to improve. The decline in domestic electrolytic aluminum and downstream aluminum rod inventories provided industrial support for aluminum prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the November 2024 high [7]. - Today, Shanghai nickel oscillated, and the open interest decreased. Although the domestic and overseas macro - environments improved, nickel prices performed significantly weaker than the non - ferrous metal sector, mainly due to persistent industrial pressure and weak rebound momentum. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: As of October 27, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China monitored by SMM increased by 0.29 million tons week - on - week to 18.45 million tons. The core reason for the inventory build - up this week was the simultaneous arrival of imported and domestic supplies, combined with weak outbound shipments. Looking ahead, SMM expects a concentrated arrival of imported supplies, and the demand side will be suppressed by the rising copper prices, so the weekly copper inventory is expected to increase [10]. - Nickel: On October 27, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2511 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124400 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +650 yuan/ton, with a price of 122500 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2450 yuan/ton, with a price of 124300 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124400 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [12][13][14]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts such as aluminum premium, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, etc [26][27][29]. - Nickel: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, SHFE nickel inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][39][40].