国投期货软商品日报-20251027

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable, with a focus on waiting and seeing [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆★, the meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show different trends, affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and weather. Overall, the market is complex, and most commodities are recommended for temporary waiting and seeing or short - term operations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, and the spot sales basis was mostly stable. Xinjiang seed cotton purchase prices were stable with a slight increase, raising new cotton costs and supporting the market. The purchase by ginneries was cautious, and the price increase space was limited. As of October 26, the national cumulative cotton inspection volume was 135.55 million tons. The peak season was weak, with insufficient new orders for yarn spinning enterprises and cautious purchasing by traders. The short - term rise of Zhengzhou cotton was a rebound with limited space, and it was recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar was weak. Brazilian production data in the second half of September was bearish, with increased cane crushing and sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile, and the market focused on the next season's output estimate. The expected sugar output in Guangxi for the 25/26 season was good, and sugar prices were expected to remain weakly volatile [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. In Shandong, the purchase price of new - season bagged Fuji increased by 0.5 - 0.7 yuan per catty, but the purchase progress was slow, and the volume was small. In Shaanxi, good - quality apples were mostly pre - ordered, and the current supply was of lower quality. The market focused on cold - storage inventory. The national apple bagging volume decreased slightly, and the output might be adjusted downwards. The initial cold - storage inventory might be higher than expected, and it was recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - After the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Malaysia, the futures market sentiment was divided. The price of domestic natural rubber was stable with a slight increase, and the price of synthetic rubber decreased slightly. The global natural rubber supply was in a high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased slightly, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate decreased slightly. The domestic tire operating rate rebounded slightly, and the inventory of finished products increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, while the social inventory of butadiene rubber increased. The strategy was to consider rebound opportunities after a sharp decline [5] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly, and the spot prices were stable. As of October 23, the inventory in Chinese ports decreased by 1.9 million tons to 205.5 million tons. In September, the imported pulp volume increased by 27.25 million tons year - on - year. The port inventory was relatively high, and the demand was average. The overseas broad - leaf pulp price increased, narrowing the price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp and supporting the coniferous pulp. It was recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The log futures price decreased significantly with position reduction, but the fundamentals changed little. In October, the price of New Zealand radiata pine increased, and the domestic spot price was weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The domestic supply was expected to remain low. The port delivery volume was over 60,000 cubic meters, supporting the price. The low inventory also supported the price, and it was recommended to wait and see [7]