冠通期货研究报告：2025年11月PVC月度报告-20251027

Report Information - Report Title: 2025 November PVC Monthly Report [1] - Release Date: October 27, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Su Miaoda [1] - Company: Guantong Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to rise first and then fall in November, influenced by factors such as high social inventory, upcoming end of some production enterprise overhauls, high futures warehouse receipts, warming macro - atmosphere, and low PVC valuation. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies and the "15th Five - Year Plan" real estate policies [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - PVC production start - up rate decreased slightly to 76.57% month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream start - up rate continued to increase, exceeding the levels of the past two years but still at a low level. The export outlook for Q4 weakened due to factors like India's anti - dumping tax and Taiwan's price cut, but September exports were still good as the anti - dumping tax was not yet implemented. Social inventory increased slightly and remained high, and the real estate market was still in adjustment with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas [3] PVC Upstream - In October, the calcium carbide price stabilized after a decline with a slightly lower price center. The start - up rate of calcium carbide increased slightly to around 66% but remained low, and the loss in August decreased. The start - up rate of semi - coke decreased to a neutral level of 55%, and its price rose slightly in October without a reduction in the loss [12] PVC Production - In September, PVC production decreased by 2.05% month - on - month to 2.0308 million tons but increased by 4.64% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in recent years. The maintenance loss in September decreased by 5.01% month - on - month to 548,200 tons and decreased by 0.11% year - on - year, at a relatively low level in recent years [16] PVC Start - up Rate - The PVC start - up rate in September was 78.75%, a 0.53 - percentage - point decrease from August 2025 and a 0.80 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. As of the week of October 24, the start - up rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 76.57% due to some enterprises' overhauls. Several new production capacities were put into operation or trial - produced [20] PVC Import and Export - In September 2025, China's PVC imports were 14,400 tons, up 7.73% year - on - year and 16.08% month - on - month, at a relatively low level in recent years. The cumulative imports from January to September were 175,500 tons, up 0.76% year - on - year. Exports in September were 346,400 tons, up 24.53% year - on - year and 21.95% month - on - month, at the highest level in recent years. The cumulative exports from January to September were 2.9216 million tons, up 50.63% year - on - year. The Q4 export outlook weakened, but September exports were still good [28] Real Estate Data - The real estate market was in adjustment. From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, down 13.9% year - on - year. Sales area, new construction area, and completion area all had significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of October 26, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, at the lowest level in recent years [32] PVC Downstream Start - up Rate - In October, the PVC downstream start - up rate increased after the National Day holiday. As of the week of October 24, the average start - up rate increased by 1.27 percentage points to 49.86%, 3.61 percentage points lower than the same period last year, but exceeding the levels of the past two years, still at a low level [35] PVC Inventory - As of the week of October 23, PVC social inventory increased by 0.13% month - on - month to 1.0352 million tons, 24.87% higher than the same period last year, remaining at a high level [39]