Report Overview - Report Title: "Black Industry Chain Weekly Report" [1] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [2] - Report Issuer: Huabao Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Overall Black Market: The black market is expected to operate at a low level with a short - term rebound. The macro - environment has improved, and steel production restrictions support price rebounds. However, attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [9]. - Iron Ore: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly decreasing, but the pressure on inventory accumulation is within an acceptable range. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore is expected to be in the range of 760 - 785 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 103 - 105 US dollars/ton [10]. - Coal and Coke: The short - term supply and demand of coal and coke fluctuate marginally, and the inventory pressure is temporarily not large. The price should be treated with cautious optimism. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the coal - coke - steel industry and changes in imported coal customs clearance [11]. - Ferroalloys: The supply of ferroalloys remains relatively loose, and the price is expected to be under pressure and decline weakly. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits, production, and domestic production restrictions [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: The prices of most black futures and spot products showed different degrees of changes last week. For example, the price of the main contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 1.44%, and the price of the main contract of coke increased by 4.86% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - Logic: The utilization rate of blast furnace iron - making capacity of 247 steel mills decreased slightly last week. The macro - environment improved, and Hebei launched a heavy - pollution weather emergency response, which is beneficial to the fundamentals of steel in the short term [9]. - Viewpoint: The black market is expected to operate at a low level with a short - term rebound. - Later Attention: Macro policies and downstream demand. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - Rebar - Production and Apparent Demand: Last week, the production was 207.07 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.91 million tons; the apparent demand was 226.01 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 6.26 million tons [14]. - Inventory: The total inventory was 622.11 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 18.94 million tons [21]. - Hot - Rolled Coil - Production and Apparent Demand: Last week, the production was 322.46 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.62 million tons; the apparent demand was 326.73 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 11.18 million tons [25]. - Inventory: The total inventory was 414.92 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.27 million tons [29]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: The overseas ore shipment increased slightly week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased rapidly for two consecutive weeks after reaching a new high this year [10]. - Demand: The domestic demand decreased week - on - week. The blast furnace operating rate increased, but the molten iron output decreased. The loss range of steel mills expanded, and the profitability rate dropped to the lowest level of the year [10]. - Inventory: The steel mill inventory increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [10]. - Price Forecast: The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 760 - 785 yuan/ton for the main contract of Dalian iron ore [10]. 3.3.3 Coal and Coke - Supply: Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia stopped production due to safety and mining area governance issues last week, and the coal production decreased [11]. - Demand: The profit of steel mills decreased, and the molten iron output decreased slightly [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coke and coking coal increased slightly [82][89]. - Price: The second - round price increase of coke has not been finalized, and the price of coking coal is expected to be treated with cautious optimism [11]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Supply: The production and operating rate of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises showed different degrees of changes, but the overall supply was still relatively loose [12]. - Demand: The weekly demand for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron of five major steel types increased slightly, but the demand may weaken in the future [12]. - Inventory: The silicon - manganese inventory continued to increase, and the silicon - iron inventory decreased slightly [12]. - Cost: The cost support of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron was relatively stable [12]. - Price Forecast: The price is expected to be under pressure and decline weakly [12].
华宝期货黑色产业链周报-20251027
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-10-27 11:48