华宝期货有色金属周报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: With obvious support from macro - sentiment, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term. Attention should be paid to downstream feedback at high prices [10][11] - Zinc: In the short term, the price will follow the overall non - ferrous metals to operate at a high level, but medium - and long - term supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] - Tin: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the tin price will be strongly sorted [15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01有色周度行情回顾 - Copper (CU2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 87,720, a weekly increase of 3,330 or 3.95% compared to October 17. The spot price was 86,370, a weekly increase of 1,535 or 1.81% [8] - Aluminum (AL2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 21,225, a weekly increase of 315 or 1.51% compared to October 17. The spot price was 21,130, a weekly increase of 170 or 0.81% [8] - Zinc (ZN2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 22,355, a weekly increase of 540 or 2.48% compared to October 17. The spot price was 21,818, a weekly decrease of 38 or - 0.17% [8] - Tin (SN2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 284,300, a weekly increase of 3,550 or 1.26% compared to October 17. The spot price was 282,750, a weekly increase of 1,500 or 0.53% [8] - Nickel (NI2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 122,150, a weekly increase of 990 or 0.82% compared to October 17. The spot price was 123,240, a weekly increase of 460 or 0.37% [8] 3.2 02本周有色行情预判 Aluminum - Logic: Last week, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. Macroscopically, the increase in US consumer prices in September was lower than expected, and the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates again this week. Domestically, the macro - sentiment is positive. Fundamentally, the supply of domestic bauxite remains tight, and the price has increased slightly. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises is stable in the peak season with internal differentiation. As of October 27, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased [10] - Viewpoint: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term, and attention should be paid to downstream feedback at high prices [11] - Later attention: Geopolitical crisis development, macro - policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [12] Zinc - Logic: Last week, the zinc price was strong. The import of zinc ore is still significantly loss - making, and domestic zinc ore is in short supply. The operating rate of galvanizing decreased last week. The inventory of zinc ingots decreased due to downstream enterprises' cautious purchasing. The overall domestic inventory increased, with different trends in different regions [13] - Viewpoint: In the short term, the price will follow the overall non - ferrous metals to operate at a high level, but medium - and long - term supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] - Later attention: Macro - policy implementation, mine - end production release, and consumption release [13] Tin - Logic: In September 2025, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. Indonesia's closure of illegal tin mines and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar have led to a tight supply situation. The domestic production and operating rate have rebounded, but the processing fee of smelters remains low. Downstream consumption in emerging fields is okay, but traditional sectors are cooling down [15] - Viewpoint: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the tin price will be strongly sorted [15] - Later attention: Myanmar's resumption of production and countries' trade policies [15] 3.3 03品种数据（铝、锌、锡） Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the average price index of imported bauxite decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The port arrival and departure volumes increased week - on - week and year - on - year [19][22] - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the full cost decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [25] - Electrolytic aluminum: The total cost decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the regional price difference increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The operating rates of different downstream processing sectors showed different trends. The inventory in different regions and types also had different changes. The basis and monthly spread also changed [29][32][38] Zinc - Zinc concentrate: The price of domestic zinc concentrate increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the domestic processing fee remained unchanged week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the imported processing fee decreased week - on - week. The enterprise production profit increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the import profit and loss decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang increased week - on - week and year - on - year [52][55] - Refined zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the bonded - area inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory of refined zinc in SHFE decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the LME inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [58] - Galvanizing: The output increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the operating rate decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the raw material inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the finished - product inventory increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [61] - Zinc basis and monthly spread: The basis and monthly spread of zinc changed week - on - week and year - on - year [64][68] Tin - Refined tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the combined operating rate increased week - on - week and year - on - year [73] - Tin ingot: The total inventory of SHFE tin ingots increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the social inventory of tin ingots in different regions of China decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [76] - Tin concentrate processing fee: The processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [77] - Tin ore import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year [79] - Spot price: The average prices of tin concentrate in different regions increased week - on - week and year - on - year [83]