两口径基建为何背离?
Huachuang Securities·2025-10-27 13:45

Group 1: Infrastructure Investment Definitions - Narrow infrastructure investment excludes electricity and includes telecommunications and internet services, while broad infrastructure includes electricity, heat, gas, water production, and supply[1][5] - In 2017, electricity, heat, gas, and water production accounted for approximately 17% of broad infrastructure investment, while warehousing accounted for about 4%[1][7] Group 2: Recent Trends and Discrepancies - In September, narrow infrastructure investment growth was -4.6%, improving from -5.9%, while broad infrastructure investment fell to -8% from -6.4%[2][8] - Excluding the impact of electricity, heat, gas, and water industries, broad infrastructure growth would decline further, exacerbating the discrepancy[2][8] - Internet and related services, included in narrow but not broad infrastructure, saw a 20.6% increase in investment, contributing to the divergence[2][8] Group 3: Impact of Specific Sectors - Warehousing investment dropped from 4% to -23% in September, significantly affecting broad infrastructure investment[3][9] - Estimated that warehousing accounted for about 3.9% of total infrastructure investment in September, contributing a -0.9 percentage point drag on broad infrastructure growth[3][9]