国投期货能源日报-20251027

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Short - term volatile and bullish, but the rebound height is limited, with a strategy of combining short positions on crude oil when prices are high and out - of - the - money call options [1] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil is driven by geopolitical factors but its upside space may be limited; low - sulfur fuel oil should not be overly bearish as its crack spread may be supported [2] - Asphalt: Short - term boost but upside space is restricted by weak demand and slow de - stocking in the medium and long term [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Short - term boost from fundamental improvement and strong crude oil [4] Core Views - Geopolitical risks and trade - war risk changes affect the oil market, and the short - term oil market is generally bullish but with limited upside [1] - Different products in the oil - related industry have different supply - demand situations, and their prices are affected by factors such as geopolitics, production plans, and seasonal demand [1][2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, international oil prices rebounded from a low level, with Brent 12 contract up 7.09% and SC12 contract up 0.58% intraday [1] - Geopolitical risks have a turning point, and trade - war risk cooling adds to market optimism, but the impact of geopolitical fluctuations is limited [1] - Short - term crude oil is volatile and bullish, but the rebound height is limited, and a strategy of combining short positions on crude oil when prices are high and out - of - the - money call options is recommended [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors drive the upward trend of the crude - oil system, and high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong due to concerns about Russian exports [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil's price is dominated by macro - events, and its supply is expected to be more abundant, limiting the upside space [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation, but supply - side geopolitical factors and seasonal demand may support its crack spread [2] Asphalt - In November, the planned production of refineries nationwide decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [3] - Terminal demand is affected by temperature in the north and weather in the south, and the overall commercial inventory decreased month - on - month [3] - The short - term boost to BU is limited by weak "peak - season" demand and slow de - stocking in the medium and long term [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Today, LPG futures fluctuated and were bullish [4] - External prices stabilized and rebounded, and supply decreased while demand increased [4] - The decline in port and refinery storage rates, along with strong crude oil, provides a short - term boost to LPG [4]