策略日报：新高大类资产跟踪-20251027

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market is experiencing a rise across the board, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The thirty-year government bond is expected to stabilize and rebound after hitting a new low this year, but will continue to decline in the long term, targeting the low point from September 30, 2024 [12][7] - The A-share market is showing a strong upward trend, with a trading volume exceeding 2 trillion, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards optimism. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through the 4000-point mark this quarter, driven by strong performance in technology and traditional sectors like coal and banking [14][2] - The US stock market is showing a positive trend, with major indices rising. The anticipated agreement on US-China trade at the APEC meeting and strong earnings reports are expected to support this performance, although volatility is expected to remain low ahead of key meetings [20][3] Group 2: Sector Analysis - In the A-share market, sectors such as electronics, communications, and non-ferrous metals are leading the gains, while media, food and beverage, and real estate are lagging. The technology sector's absorption rate remains high, indicating potential for further growth [14][2] - The commodity market is seeing a mixed performance, with the Wenhua Commodity Index rising by 0.53%. Sectors like new energy and steel are leading, while precious metals and corn are underperforming. Investors are advised to monitor the recovery of various commodities, including coal and livestock [27][5] Group 3: Currency and Foreign Exchange - The onshore RMB against the USD has shown a slight decline, but the central bank's guidance has led to a stronger performance compared to other currencies. The dollar index is expected to continue its upward trend, surpassing previous resistance levels [23][4] - The euro is weakening due to internal economic challenges and high speculative positions, while the dollar is anticipated to strengthen further, exceeding market expectations [23][5]