Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect no trending market and maintain caution [6][7] - For stock index futures, the risk of a significant decline is low, and one can choose the right time to go long [8][9] - For precious metals, the pricing is relatively full. After taking profits on previous long positions, one can wait and see [10][11][12] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, consider shorting at high levels during rebounds and pay attention to position management [13] - For iron ore, look for buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15][16] - For coking coal and coke, look for buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions [18] - For ferroalloys, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls back into the loss - making range [20][21] - For crude oil, focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [23][24] - For fuel oil, focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [25][26] - For synthetic rubber, it will run in a volatile manner [27][28] - For natural rubber, pay attention to long - position opportunities [29][30] - For PVC, pay attention to changes in the supply side [31][33] - For urea, the downside space is limited [34][35] - For p - xylene (PX), it may have an oscillatory adjustment with support at the bottom. Control positions and be vigilant about crude oil changes [36] - For PTA, it may run in a volatile manner. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [37] - For ethylene glycol, it may run in a volatile manner with limited downside space. Monitor port inventory and import changes [38] - For short - fiber, it may follow the cost to run in a volatile manner. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39][40] - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost side to run in a volatile manner. Control risks [41] - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption in the context of a pattern of high supply and demand [42][43] - For copper, focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract of Shanghai copper [44][45] - For tin, it is expected to run in a volatile and upward - biased manner [46] - For nickel, it is expected to run in a volatile manner [48] - For soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities for call options in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, temporarily wait and see [50][51] - For palm oil, temporarily wait and see [52] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [53][55] - For cotton, the upside space of cotton prices is expected to be limited [56][57][58] - For sugar, there is certain support below the price [59][61][62] - For apples, wait and see [63][64] - For live pigs, take short - term profits on short positions and then wait and see. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and consider reverse - spread strategies for arbitrage [65][66] - For eggs, hold short positions [67][69] - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see; corn starch has weak production and demand with high inventory [70][71][72] Summary by Catalog Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.25%, 0.06%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank conducted 168 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 3.2 billion yuan [5] - US economic data and macro - economic conditions suggest that Treasury bond futures are unlikely to have a trending market [6] Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 1.49%, 1.04%, 2.37%, and 2.42% respectively [8] - Domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up. The risk of a significant decline is low [8] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 938.1 with a decline of 0.44%, and the silver main contract closed at 11,332 with a decline of 1.18% [10] - Global economic data and trends are favorable for precious metals, but the recent rise has been large, and the pricing is full [10][11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures had a slight correction. The spot prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils are given [13] - In the medium term, rebar demand is weak, supply is over - capacity, and inventory pressure is high. Hot - rolled coils may have a similar trend [13] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder are provided [15] - Iron ore demand is supported in the short term, but the medium - term supply - demand pattern may weaken [15] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and consolidated. Coking coal supply is tight, and coke procurement prices have been raised [18] - Technically, coking coal and coke futures are strengthening in the short term [18] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.59% to 5772 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 0.07% to 5542 yuan/ton [20] - Supply is in excess in the short term, but costs are rising, and there may be long - position opportunities at low levels [20][21] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward due to European sanctions on Russia. US oil and gas rig counts increased [22] - Multiple factors are favorable for crude oil prices, and focus on long - position opportunities [23][24] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly due to the rise in crude oil and sanctions on Russia. The market structure of fuel oil has recovered [25] - Singapore's fuel oil supply is tight, and sanctions on Russia are favorable for fuel oil prices. Focus on long - position opportunities [25][26] Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 0.14%. Supply - side factors led to a rebound, and it will run in a wide - range volatile manner [27] Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - grade rubber main contract rose. Supply is affected by weather, and demand and inventory are changing [29] - Focus on long - position opportunities [30] PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell 0.36%. Supply exceeds demand, but the downward space may be limited [31] - Pay attention to changes in exports and supply reduction after the holiday [31] Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.74%. Supply pressure has eased, and demand is picking up [34] - The downside space is limited [35] PX - On the previous trading day, the PX main contract rose 0.52%. PXN and PX - MX spreads are given. Supply and import data are provided [36] - Short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and it may have an oscillatory adjustment with bottom support [36] PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2601 main contract rose 0.27%. Supply and demand data, as well as processing fees, are provided [37] - It may run in a volatile manner with support at the bottom [37] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 0.22%. Supply, inventory, and demand data are provided [38] - It may run in a volatile manner with limited downside space [38] Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2512 main contract fell 0.1%. Supply, demand, and processing fee data are provided [39][40] - It may follow the cost to run in a volatile manner [40] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract rose 0.11%. Supply, demand, and processing fee data are provided [41] - It is expected to follow the cost side to run in a volatile manner [41] Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 1.33% to 79,520 yuan/ton. Supply is high, and demand is improving [42] - Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43] Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. Current copper prices are rising, but downstream demand is weak [44] - Multiple factors are favorable for copper prices. Focus on long - position opportunities [44][45] Tin - On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 0.32% to 282,250 yuan/ton. Supply is tight, and demand has some resilience [46] - It is expected to run in a volatile and upward - biased manner [46] Nickel - On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.23% to 122,260 yuan/ton. Supply concerns and demand conditions are provided [48] - It is expected to run in a volatile manner [48] Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 0.58% to 2933 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.15% to 8194 yuan/ton. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [50] - Consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal call options; for soybean oil, temporarily wait and see [51] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil is falling and oscillating. Indonesian biodiesel consumption has increased, and Malaysian exports have risen [52] - Temporarily wait and see [52] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are affected by other vegetable oils. Domestic import data for rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal are provided [53][54] - Temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [55] Cotton - Domestic and foreign cotton prices oscillated. Sino - US negotiations are ongoing, and domestic cotton production is expected to be high [56] - The upside space of cotton prices is limited [57][58] Sugar - Zhengzhou sugar is weakly oscillating, and the overseas market is falling due to expected supply growth. Brazilian production data are provided [59] - There is certain support below the price [61][62] Apples - Domestic apple futures fluctuated. The opening price is higher than last year, and there are issues with apple diseases and production forecasts [63] - Wait and see [64] Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs is rising. Supply and demand data, as well as cost and inventory information, are provided [65] - Consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [66] Eggs - Egg prices are rising, but costs are high, and the supply is increasing. Inventory and consumption data are provided [67] - Hold short positions [69] Corn and Starch - Corn and corn starch futures prices are provided. Supply, demand, and inventory data for corn and corn starch are given [70][71] - Corn prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see; corn starch has weak production and demand with high inventory [71][72]
西南期货早间评论-20251027
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-10-27 15:39