Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - After the Fourth Plenary Session and the progress in Sino - US negotiations, market sentiment has improved. Steel and iron ore prices have risen, and the sector is expected to be driven by macro and policy factors. In the short term, prices of various products in the black building materials industry are expected to oscillate [1]. - Although there are signs of recovery in the steel market, the inventory is still at a relatively high level, and the fundamentals have limited highlights. The iron ore fundamentals have slightly weakened, and the scrap steel price is expected to follow the finished products. The supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and the coking coal fundamentals are healthy. The alloy prices are supported by cost and output but face supply - demand pressure. The glass and soda ash prices are in an oscillating and weakening state [1][2] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: Affected by previous concentrated arrivals, the current arrival level has dropped rapidly. Considering the normal growth of shipments, the arrival level is expected to stabilize. The fundamentals of iron ore have slightly weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Scrap steel has no prominent fundamental contradictions. With poor electric furnace profits and steel mill production reduction expectations, its price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [1] Carbon Element - Coke: Environmental protection restrictions affect both supply and demand, but the overall impact is limited. The short - term supply - demand structure is still tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [2] - Coking coal: Supply is difficult to improve, and the middle and lower reaches are actively purchasing. The upstream coal mine inventory is low, but considering the possible seasonal weakening of demand, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: Cost reduction is limited, and steel production is still high, which supports the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is obvious upward pressure on the price [2] - Ferrosilicon: High steel production and firm cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is expected to be limited [2] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. After the negative feedback between futures and spot, the short - term price shows an oscillating and weakening trend. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [2] - Soda ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro fluctuations, and the long - term price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Steel - The spot market trading volume has improved, but the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are not good. Steel production has increased, demand has recovered, and inventory has continued to decline but at a slow pace. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to domestic policies and Sino - US trade negotiations [7] Iron Ore - The spot market price is strong. Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased, and port inventory has decreased slightly. The fundamentals have slightly weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with attention to macro and policy factors [8][9] Scrap Steel - The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. With poor electric furnace profits and steel mill production reduction expectations, the price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [10] Coke - The second - round price increase has been implemented. Supply has tightened, and demand may decline slightly. The short - term supply - demand structure is still tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [11] Coking Coal - Supply recovery is slow, and the middle and lower reaches are actively purchasing. The upstream inventory is low, but considering the possible seasonal weakening of demand, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][12] Glass - Manufacturers in Shahe and Hubei have continued to accumulate inventory, and the spot price has continued to decline. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the short - term price shows an oscillating and weakening trend. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed [12] Soda Ash - Production has slightly fluctuated, and downstream procurement is stable. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro fluctuations, and the long - term price center will decline [14] Manganese Silicon - The futures price is strong, but the spot market is cold. Cost reduction is limited, and steel production is high, which supports the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is obvious upward pressure on the price [14][15] Ferrosilicon - The cost support is strengthened, and the futures price has slightly increased. High steel production and firm cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is expected to be limited [16]
市场情绪改善，品种价格修复为主
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-28 00:36