中美贸易担忧缓和，基本金属大幅走强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The easing of Sino - US trade concerns and positive macro - expectations have led to a significant strengthening of base metals. In the short and medium term, supply - side disturbances and improved macro - expectations are the main drivers. Copper leads the rise of base metals, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of aluminum ingot price catch - up. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin persist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand, so the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - Copper: The restart of Sino - US trade negotiations and the release of the Fourth Plenary Session communiqué have improved market sentiment. Supply disturbances continue to increase, with reduced copper ore supply and higher scrap copper recycling costs. Although it is the peak demand season, high prices have curbed demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8][9]. - Alumina: There are still fundamental pressures, but the valuation has entered a low - level range. The price is expected to fluctuate. The spot price has shown some declines in different regions [9][10]. - Aluminum: The domestic and overseas macro - environment is positive. The domestic replacement capacity is being put into production, and there are marginal disturbances in overseas supply. The traditional peak season is ending, and terminal demand is stable. With the copper - aluminum ratio above 4.0, the short - term price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and the medium - term price center may rise [12][13]. - Aluminum Alloy: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. There are small - scale production cuts on the supply side, and demand has marginally improved. The short - term price is expected to remain high and volatile, and the medium - term price is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. - Zinc: The macro - environment is optimistic, but the supply is loose in the short term, and the demand is entering the off - season. The short - term price may be volatile at a high level, and there is still room for decline in the long term [18][19]. - Lead: There are disturbances in recycled lead supply, and social inventory is at a low level. The current demand is in the peak season, and the supply is slightly less than expected. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons. The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be widely volatile in the short term [22][24]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts are decreasing. Nickel - iron prices are weakening, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand sustainability needs attention. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [25][26]. - Tin: Supply constraints are strengthening. In Wa State, production increase may be delayed, and in Indonesia, refined tin supply is expected to tighten. Although the inventory has started to accumulate slightly, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [26][27]. 3.2行情监测 - Commodity Index: On October 27, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index, and PPI commodity index of CITIC Futures all showed increases. The industrial products index had the highest increase of 0.95% [152]. - Sector Index: The non - ferrous metals index on October 27, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.55%, a 5 - day increase of 2.41%, a 1 - month increase of 5.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.71% [153].