聚酯产业链期货周报-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On October 23, the EU's 19th - round sanctions on Russia drove up the price of Brent crude oil, increasing the cost of PX and PTA. For PX, it is expected to be short - term bullish with high operating rates. For PTA, supply increases while demand stabilizes, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. For MEG, supply is expected to rise, and the market will become more balanced. For short - fiber and bottle - chip, short - term demand is okay, but long - term demand may weaken [8]. - Trading strategies for all products suggest short - term shock. After the weakening of demand and oil prices, there are opportunities to short at high prices. Arbitrage is on hold, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - PX: Supply and demand both increase. Spot floating prices are strong, and paper - goods maintain a back structure. Operating rates will remain high. Short - term is bullish, and look for short - selling opportunities when demand and oil prices weaken [8]. - PTA: Supply increases while demand stabilizes. Social inventory has been rising since late September. Processing fees have dropped to within 100 yuan/ton. Operating rates are expected to be stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [8]. - MEG: Port pick - up is stable, and the basis is strong. Supply has decreased this week but is expected to increase. The market will become more balanced [8]. - Short - fiber: Supply and demand are stable, with good processing fees. Domestic demand is strong, but export orders are slow. Demand support may be limited in the future [8]. - Bottle - chip: Operating rates are stable, with good transactions and slightly stronger processing fees. Future demand may decline as it transitions from peak to off - peak season [8]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 Polyester - Overall: Operating rates are stable, raw material prices rise, and processing fees are compressed. Sales are good due to terminal replenishment [12]. - Filament: Sales are good, operating rates change little, and inventory decreases significantly. Operating rates are around 92.4%, and average inventory days are 17.6 days, a decrease of 6.8 days week - on - week [17]. - Bottle - chip: Operating rates are stable, transactions are good, and processing fees are slightly stronger. Future replenishment may weaken [19]. - Short - fiber: Supply and demand are stable, factory and downstream inventory decline, and processing fees are good. Domestic demand is strong, but new export orders are slow, and demand support may be limited [26]. 2.2 PX - Price: Spot floating prices are strong, and paper - goods maintain a back structure [27]. - Profit: Naphtha cracking spreads are compressed, and long - and short - process device profits are strong. Long - process device profits are around $240/ton, and short - process device profits are over $100/ton [29]. - Operating rate: It is at a high level and will continue to rise. Many devices are scheduled to restart [31]. 2.3 PTA - Basis and monthly spread: They are weak, and social inventory has been rising since late September [33]. - Supply and demand: Supply increases while demand stabilizes. Processing fees have dropped to a new low this year, within 100 yuan/ton. Operating rates are expected to be stable [37]. 2.4 MEG - Basis: It is strong due to stable port pick - up and low arrivals [38]. - Supply: Operating rates have decreased this week but are expected to increase as many devices are scheduled to restart [48]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 PX - Price: It shows the price trends of the PX industry chain, including naphtha, pure benzene, etc. [52]. - Spreads and profits: It includes variety spreads, disproportionation - blending spreads, regional spreads, etc. [54][58][60]. 3.2 PTA - Price: It shows the spot prices of PTA and PX and related spreads and profits [72]. - Supply and demand: It shows the load indexes of PTA and polyester and inventory data [82][84]. 3.3 MEG - Price: It shows the spot price of ethylene glycol and related raw material prices [86]. - Spreads and profits: It includes various spreads and profits such as internal - external spreads and oil - making profits [88][97]. - Supply and demand: It shows the load index and inventory data [104][106]. 3.4 Polyester - Profit: It includes weighted profits, filament profits, etc. [109]. - Supply: It shows the load data of polyester, bottle - chip, etc. [111]. - Inventory: It shows the inventory days of filament, short - fiber, etc. [114]. - Demand: It includes the operating rates of downstream industries such as printing and dyeing, weaving, and related inventory and sales data [117][122][125].