现实供需偏紧，碳酸锂继续领涨新能源金属

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the tight supply - demand situation, lithium carbonate leads the rise of new energy metals. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price center. The lithium ore production capacity is rising, which will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the silicon price fluctuates. For polysilicon, the supply side is expected to cut production, and the price remains high. For lithium carbonate, the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Viewpoint: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the silicon price fluctuates [6]. - Information Analysis: - The spot prices of oxygen - blown 553 in East China are 9350 yuan/ton, and 421 in East China are 9650 yuan/ton, with small fluctuations [6]. - The latest domestic inventory in Baichuan is 445,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Market inventory is 183,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and factory inventory is 262,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [6]. - As of September 2025, the monthly domestic industrial silicon production is 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. From January to September, the cumulative production is 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3% [6]. - In September, the export of industrial silicon is 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export is 561,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [6]. - The newly installed photovoltaic capacity in September is 9.66GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76%. From January to September, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity reaches 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [6]. - Main Logic: The dry season in the southwest is coming, and silicon plants in Yunnan and Sichuan are expected to gradually reduce production. Currently, the supply in the northwest is still increasing, and the domestic industrial silicon supply is still in a loose situation. The increase in polysilicon production in October supports the demand for industrial silicon, but the demand will decline in November. The demand for silicone remains weak and stable, and the demand for aluminum alloy increases slightly. In November, industrial silicon is still in a pattern of inventory accumulation, but the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts provides some support to the market [6]. - Outlook: In the short term, the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts supports the market, but industrial silicon still faces inventory accumulation. The silicon price is expected to fluctuate [6]. Polysilicon - Viewpoint: The supply side is expected to cut production, and the polysilicon price remains high [7]. - Information Analysis: - According to the data of the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [7]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9,240 lots, a decrease of 180 lots from the previous value [7]. - In September, China's polysilicon export volume is about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. From January to September 2025, the total export volume is 18,667 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30%. In September, the import volume is about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September 2025, the import volume is 14,677 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.26% [7]. - From January to September 2025, the newly installed domestic photovoltaic capacity is 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity is 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [7]. - Relevant policies aim to regulate low - price disorderly competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity. The National Standards Committee plans to revise the comprehensive energy consumption per unit product for polysilicon [7]. - Affected by recent meetings and electricity prices in the wet/dry seasons, some polysilicon bases in the southwest region have started to gradually reduce raw material input, with an expected full shutdown from late October to early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [8]. - Main Logic: From August to September, the polysilicon production has recovered to over 130,000 tons, and it is expected to remain high in October. With the arrival of the dry season in November, the supply will shrink. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will limit the supply. The photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first five months was high, but it overdrafted the demand in the second half of the year. The demand for polysilicon in the fourth quarter may continue to weaken. Overall, the current supply - demand situation of polysilicon is under pressure, but it is expected to improve in the dry season, and there are still policy expectations. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. - Outlook: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts the polysilicon price, but the current supply - demand situation is poor. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [9]. - Information Analysis: - On October 27, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 2.99% to 81,900 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 50,618 lots to 862,528 lots [9]. - On October 27, the spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 76,550 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 74,300 yuan/ton. The average price of the spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) is 906 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day. On the same day, the warehouse receipts decreased by 960 lots to 27,739 lots [9]. - On October 27, Dazhong Mining announced that the "Mining Plan for Jada Lithium Mine Mineral Resources" has passed the review of the Ministry of Natural Resources. The annual mining scale is 2.6 million tons/year, and the spodumene mining scale ranks among the top in the industry. After reaching full production, it can produce about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year [10]. - Main Logic: The current market has strong supply and demand. Attention should be paid to short - term demand and warehouse receipt changes. The weekly and monthly production of SMM continues to increase slightly, and imported ores will be supplemented in November, so the production is expected to remain high. The market has priced in the fact that Ningde Jianxiawo is unlikely to resume production this year, but relevant news should still be closely monitored. In terms of demand, the apparent demand is strong, and the production schedule in November is still strong, with an expected month - on - month increase. December is crucial. The social inventory continues to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decrease by 6,000 tons in November. The current change in the spot basis is not obvious, but there may be an expectation of strengthening in the future. The price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [10]. - Outlook: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [10].