锰硅：等风来

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report Although the current fundamentals of manganese - silicon are still unfavorable, based on several interesting points, a possible scenario of a trend - rising market is "imagined" under the combination of "unexpected events in the manganese ore sector" and "a turn in commodity sentiment". This scenario, while not guaranteed to materialize, is worthy of attention, especially when the market generally believes that ferroalloys lack market drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese - silicon's Current Situation and Past Analysis - The ferroalloy market has been dull, and in a previous June 2025 report, it was thought that under extremely pessimistic conditions, manganese - silicon prices might reach the "4" level. However, after the 20th Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1, 2025, the coal price rose and the commodity market's pessimistic atmosphere improved. But the manganese - silicon price did not rise significantly due to its loose fundamentals and lack of effective drivers [4]. - Currently, the supply of manganese - silicon remains high and demand is weak (mainly in the building materials sector), with the loose pattern unchanged and high visible inventory. The price is at a low - valuation state, with the Inner Mongolia cost around 5800 yuan/ton (Steel Union's data) and 5700 yuan/ton (Ferroalloy Online's data), and the current market price close to 5800 yuan/ton [5]. Objective Signals from the Manganese - silicon Market - The manganese - silicon market price (using the weighted index as an example) has gradually converged and is approaching the end of the convergence range after a long - term consolidation. Meanwhile, its volatility (VIX) has dropped to a low level. This combination usually indicates that the commodity may make a directional choice and potentially start a trending market [8][10]. Similarities in the Commodity Environment - The current situation, including the sharp rise of gold and silver, the start of copper's upward trend, and other commodities' stabilization and recovery, gives a strong sense of similarity to the commodity environment in the first quarter and early second quarter of 2024. At that time, gold, silver, and copper led the way, driving up commodity sentiment and causing significant increases in some low - valued and fundamentally - driven commodities. Currently, the commodity market is starting to turn bullish, but it may take time for positive sentiment to accumulate and spread [15][19]. Potential Drivers from the Manganese Ore Sector - Historically, manganese - silicon market drivers mainly come from the supply side or cost - push factors such as environmental inspections, power shortages, and manganese ore issues. However, due to "dual - carbon" reforms and the substitution of thermal power by solar and wind power, the likelihood of environmental inspections or power shortages driving the market is low. - Since this year, although Australian ore shipments have become more regular, port manganese ore inventories have remained at significantly low levels compared to the same period in the past six years, resulting in relatively resilient manganese ore prices and providing a basis for a manganese ore - related narrative. But for a significant upward trend in manganese - silicon, an "unexpected event" in manganese ore supply from major importing countries is needed, and the market is "waiting for the wind" [22][30].