Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market may see an increase in risk appetite due to Sino - US talks, and the trading volume has rebounded. The monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter. [13][14] - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, some are expected to be in a narrow - range shock, some are expected to be weak, and some are expected to be strong in the short - term. The trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations. [17][19][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng, Financial Regulatory Administration director Li Yunze, and CSRC chairman Wu Qing made important statements. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, resume Treasury bond trading in the open market, and strengthen macro - prudential management. [8] - In September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 21.6% year - on - year, with faster growth in high - tech and equipment manufacturing, and significant acceleration in the profits of private and foreign - funded enterprises. [8] - The CSRC issued the "Work Plan for Optimizing the Qualified Foreign Investor System" and the "Several Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium - Sized Investors in the Capital Market", which are expected to enhance the attractiveness of foreign capital and improve the protection of investors. [9] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. The A - share market rose on Monday, and Sino - US talks may boost risk appetite. The trading volume has rebounded, and the monetary policy is expected to be loosened. [13] Treasury Bond Futures - The monetary policy is expected to be further loosened, and bonds still have upward momentum. Although the bond market was suppressed in the morning due to the increase in risk appetite, the central bank's decision to restart bond - buying led to a significant decline in bond yields. [15] Black Steel and Iron Ore - In the short - term, the market may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. In the medium - term, it will maintain a volatile trend. Pay attention to Sino - US relations and policies at the end of the year. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is fair. The supply of molten iron remains high, and the prices of raw materials are volatile. [17] Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to be volatile and strong in the short - term. Pay attention to production inspections at coal mines and changes in molten iron output. The supply may shrink in the short - term, and the demand is supported, but the weakening demand for steel in the off - season may limit the upward space. [19] Ferroalloys - The over - supply situation of ferroalloys is difficult to reverse in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies. The prices of ferroalloys were affected by the strong performance of the black market and macro - sentiment, and the silicon iron price was more volatile due to the decline in thermal coal prices. [20][21] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, short - term short positions can take profits. For glass, it is recommended to wait and see. The inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly, and the supply has declined. The new capacity of glass needs time to be released, and the mid - stream inventory is high. [22] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see. The market sentiment is boosted by factors such as interest rate cuts and Sino - US talks, but the domestic market may follow the upward trend weakly. For alumina, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply surplus pressure is large. [24] Zinc - Hold short positions. The domestic zinc inventory has increased, and the spot trading is light. The import of refined zinc has decreased significantly. The domestic and international market logics are different, and the zinc price has shown a downward resonance since October. [25] Lithium Carbonate - It will be in a strong and volatile state in the short - term. The demand is strong, and the supply is close to the peak. The current supply - demand situation drives the price upward. [26] Industrial Silicon - It will fluctuate weakly in a range. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Although there is a pressure on supply in reality, the supply and demand are in a loose balance considering the reduction in production in the southwest during the dry season. [27][29] Polysilicon - It will continue to fluctuate narrowly in a range. The spot price supports the lower limit, and the upper limit depends on the implementation of capacity merger policies. There is no strong driving force for upward or downward movement. [30] Agricultural Products Cotton - Adopt the strategy of shorting on rallies with caution. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. Although Sino - US trade relations may bring some fluctuations, the actual demand change needs further observation. [32] Sugar - Short positions can be rolled or wait and see. The global sugar market is in surplus, and the long - term demand is worrying. The domestic supply pressure is gradually increasing, but the cost supports the price. [34] Eggs - Trade according to the volatile strategy. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short in the short - term. The egg - laying hen industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the futures are strong, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the increase in spot prices may be limited. [37] Apples - The price will fluctuate strongly. The prices in the western producing areas are firm, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants has increased. Pay attention to the price changes, storage progress, and purchasing sentiment of merchants. [39] Corn - Be cautious and short on near - month contracts, and consider going long on far - month contracts. The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure in the northeast is still accumulating. The possible release of policy wheat may have a substitution impact on corn. [40] Red Dates - Wait and see. The market price is stable, but the opening price is expected to decline, leading to a significant decline in the futures price. [41] Pigs - Wait and see in the short - term. The supply - demand situation is deadlocked, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm of large - scale enterprises at the end of the month. [41] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply - demand contradiction of crude oil is expected to become more prominent, and the oil price is likely to fall. Although the price has rebounded due to geopolitical conflicts and Sino - US macro - expectations, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be suppressed. [43] Fuel Oil - The price will follow the oil price. The supply - demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and the short - term focus is on the impact of sanctions on Russia's supply. [44] Plastics - It will fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the upstream profit has slightly recovered after the recent rebound, with limited upward momentum. [45] Rubber - There is no obvious trend, and it is mainly in a shock state. Short - term double - selling strategies or short - term long - buying on pullbacks can be considered. [47] Methanol - Adopt a volatile strategy and wait for the opportunity to go long in small positions after the rebound driver appears. The market is in a game around factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods, and the supply pressure is large, but there are also some positive factors. [48] Caustic Soda - Adopt a volatile strategy. Although the spot price is weak, there is cost support, and the weak performance of alumina suppresses the futures price. [49] Asphalt - The price trend is strong. The oil price has no main - line logic, and the later focus is on the concern about raw materials caused by the US military threat to Venezuela. The current demand is in the peak season, and the inventory is decreasing at a normal rate. [50] Printing Paper - It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply may be excessive due to the resumption of production by Chenming during the off - season. In the short - term, the fundamental situation has no obvious change, and some option strategies can be considered. [52] Polyester Industry Chain - Consider going long in small positions on dips in the short - term. The market sentiment has been boosted by the improvement of the macro - environment and news. The supply - demand situations of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. have different changes. [53] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The short - term trend is strong, but the supply is abundant. The demand for the blending oil market may weaken, and the profit of PDH has recovered. The Sino - US trade negotiation may affect the price. [54] Pulp - Observe the inventory reduction at ports and spot trading. If the spot price is stable, long positions can be established in the far - month 01 contract in small positions. [55] Logs - Be cautious when shorting. After the rebound, short positions can be established in small positions. The import cost may decrease, the supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is weakening. [56] Urea - Adopt a weakly volatile strategy. Pay attention to the impact of the cost side on the futures. The supply - demand situation has deteriorated compared with the previous period. [56] Synthetic Rubber - The short - term trend is weak. Be cautious when shorting on sharp drops, and consider selling call options on rebounds. [57]
中泰期货晨会纪要-20251028
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-28 01:10