研究所晨会观点精萃-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The optimistic expectation of a Sino-US trade agreement boosts global risk appetite. The progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and lower-than-expected US inflation in September lead to a weaker US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. In China, economic growth has accelerated, and the good progress of trade negotiations has boosted market optimism. Policy stimulus expectations have also increased, enhancing domestic risk preference. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: Driven by sectors such as semiconductor chips, the Apple industry chain, and small metals, the domestic stock market has risen significantly. With accelerating economic growth, good progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, and enhanced policy stimulus expectations, the short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened. Short - term trading should be cautiously bullish [4]. - Treasury Bonds: In the short term, they are in a volatile state, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [3]. - Commodity Market - Black Metals: Due to improved macro - expectations and production restrictions, the spot and futures prices of steel products continue to rebound. For iron ore, the decrease in iron water production and the significant decline in arrivals have led to price increases, and it is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy. For silicon manganese and silicon iron, the spot prices are flat, and the futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [5][6][7][8][9]. - Non - ferrous Metals: The overall macro - atmosphere is bullish, and non - ferrous metals are showing a strong trend. For copper, although the high inventory in the US restricts import demand, supply constraints support the price, and it is expected to remain strong. For aluminum, affected by the short - term warm macro - atmosphere, it has room to rise in the short term. For tin, the tight supply at the mine end provides support, but high prices suppress consumption, and the price is expected to remain high and volatile. For lithium carbonate, with both supply and demand increasing, it is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [11][12]. - Energy and Chemicals: The market continues to focus on the impact of sanctions, and oil prices are stabilizing. For asphalt, although the price has rebounded and then stabilized, the inventory pressure may increase in the future. For PX, it is in a tight supply situation and is likely to fluctuate with crude oil, with relatively high short - selling risks. For PTA, the cost logic is the main driver, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the short term. For ethylene glycol, it is expected to remain volatile in the near term. For short - fiber, it is expected to remain weakly volatile. For methanol, it is expected to be volatile in the short term due to high inventory. For PP, there may be a short - term price repair. For LLDPE, although there may be a short - term price repair, the supply surplus pattern remains. For urea, the price is expected to remain low and volatile [14][15][16][17]. - Agricultural Products: The high premium of large pigs has led to strong reluctance to sell among farmers, and pig prices may stabilize and rebound. For US soybeans, the export situation is not optimistic, and the market is waiting for the results of Sino - US trade negotiations. For soybean and rapeseed meal, the supply is sufficient, and the future trade situation will determine whether there is a supply gap. For palm oil, concerns about future demand have emerged, and domestic inventory has increased. For corn, the price is adjusting downward, but farmers' reluctance to sell may slow down the decline. For live pigs, short - term prices may continue to be strong and gradually stabilize [18][19][20][21][22].