央行重启国债买卖，债市破局

Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The central bank announced the resumption of government bond trading operations, indicating a likely preference for "buying bonds" over "selling bonds" based on historical practices[1] - As of September 2025, the central bank's government bond assets stood at 2.22 trillion yuan, down 657.5 billion yuan from the peak of 2.88 trillion yuan in December 2024[2] - The central bank's previous bond buying actions included a net purchase of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds from August to December 2024[1] Group 2: Market Implications - The resumption of bond trading is expected to alleviate pressure on commercial banks' bond holdings and act as a substitute for interest rate cuts, maintaining policy flexibility for future economic challenges[4] - The anticipated bond buying may involve a mix of short and medium to long-term bonds, with significant net purchases of 1-year and 1-3 year bonds observed prior to the central bank's actions[3] - The bond market's response to the central bank's announcement has been positive, with expectations that the yield on 10-year bonds could reach the 1.70-1.75% range, reflecting a potential recovery in investor sentiment[6] Group 3: Fiscal Considerations - The central bank's early bond buying could support the government's bond issuance plans for 2026, as the net issuance of government bonds is expected to be lower in the fourth quarter of 2025[4] - The anticipated net issuance of government bonds for October to December 2025 is projected at 1.02 trillion, 1.09 trillion, and 0.45 trillion yuan, respectively, indicating reduced pressure compared to previous quarters[4]