银河期货丙烯期货周报-20251028

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the weather getting colder, the rigid demand for propane increases, leading to a price recovery. The supply pressure of propylene has been alleviated to some extent, but it is expected to rise slightly at the end of October. The cost support for propylene has strengthened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. - The trading strategies are as follows: for single - sided trading, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell put options [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis: The rigid demand for propane for combustion increases with the cold weather, and its price recovers. In mid - October, Fushun Petrochemical restarted, while several other plants stopped production, alleviating supply pressure. However, some plants like Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Kenli Chemical are expected to restart at the end of October, and the supply pressure of propylene is expected to rise but with limited amplitude. The sanctions on Russian oil companies by the US have led to an oil price rebound, strengthening the cost support for propylene [6]. - Trading Strategies: Single - sided trading is expected to be short - term bullish; arbitrage should be on the sidelines; sell put options [7]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking - Propylene Price Movement: Affected by cost, propylene rebounded from a low level. As of Friday night, the propylene futures PL2601 closed at 6155 (+30/+0.49%). The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong spot market was 6000 - 6050 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The Far East propylene price was down 20 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CFR China price was 745 - 755 US dollars/ton [12]. - Cost - side Situation: The US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to a four - day consecutive rebound in oil prices, with Brent crude hitting 66 US dollars and a cumulative increase of over 5%. Saudi Aramco's November CP for propane is expected to be lower than that in October, at 455 US dollars/ton. However, with the increasing rigid demand for propane due to cold weather, the downward space is expected to be limited [15]. - Supply Situation: As of Thursday, the overall domestic propylene operating load was 77.52%, down 0.71% week - on - week. Some plants restarted or stopped production in October, and several plants are expected to restart in October and November, so the market supply pressure still exists [23]. - Import and Export Situation: Propylene imports mainly flow to the Yangtze River Delta, followed by Fujian and Shanghai. After April, due to Sino - US tariffs, some downstream PDH plants were unstable, and downstream factories replenished low - priced foreign goods. The import volume increased significantly from May to July. South Korea is the largest source of China's propylene imports, accounting for 67.67%. The impact of tariffs on propylene trade is almost negligible [26]. - Downstream Product Situation: Most propylene downstream product prices decreased this week, especially for products like propylene oxide, n - butanol, and acrylic acid. The cost pressure on downstream products increased, and their acceptance of propylene prices gradually declined. Most downstream products of propylene have poor profits, remaining below the break - even line. Only octanol is currently profitable, and acrylic acid and butanol have periodic profitability [47].