利空发酵，原木减仓下行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different trends for each commodity. Some commodities are facing downward pressure, while others are in a state of shock or rebound [1][6]. - International and domestic factors, such as trade relations, supply and demand, and macro - economic conditions, have significant impacts on the prices of agricultural products [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - View: Yesterday, the market showed mixed fluctuations, and there is a high probability of inventory accumulation for Malaysian palm oil in October. - Logic: Due to profit - taking, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestic oils and fats showed mixed fluctuations yesterday, with soybean oil being stronger and palm oil and rapeseed oil being weaker. The US government shutdown affected data updates, and the US soybean harvest is about 80% complete, with a high probability of a decrease in yield. Brazilian new - season soybeans are expected to increase by 3.6% year - on - year. Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.78% from the 1st to the 25th of October, and exports decreased. There is a high probability of inventory accumulation in October [6]. - Outlook: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate weakly, while soybean oil will fluctuate. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [6]. Protein Meals - View: Positive signals from China - US relations led to a jump in US soybean prices and pressure on domestic soybean meal. - Logic: Internationally, China - US trade relations dominate the market. US soybean new crops are on the market, and Brazilian soybean exports have increased. Domestically, short - term profit margins for soybean crushing are gradually recovering, and the market lacks upward momentum. In the long term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a possible small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. - Outlook: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate between 1060 - 1080. The price of soybean meal is under short - term pressure, and the decline depends on China's purchase volume of US soybeans. Consider soybean meal 1 - 5 reverse spreads and option double - buying strategies [7]. Corn and Starch - View: The increase in wet corn supply led to a decline in both futures and spot prices. - Logic: The current decline in corn prices is due to high arrival volumes. Although there were short - term factors supporting the price last week, such as low inventory of grain - using enterprises and slow harvesting progress, there are still downward drivers in the future, including high yields in the Northeast, low - quality grain pressure in North China, and weak demand in the sales area [9]. - Outlook: The market will fluctuate. Hold short positions and pay attention to the profit - taking rhythm. In the long term, consider a near - far month reverse spread strategy [9]. Pigs - View: The reduction in supply at the end of the month led to a rebound in pig prices. - Logic: In the short term, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in pig prices has suppressed the enthusiasm for second - fattening. In the medium term, the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is starting to decline, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [10]. - Outlook: The market will fluctuate. In the near - term, the price is still weak, while in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Consider reverse spread strategies [10]. Natural Rubber - View: The price is consolidating at a high level, waiting for new guidance. - Logic: The recent rebound is due to a short - term bottom and relatively low valuation. The slow registration of warehouse receipts has become a focus for bulls. The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to be stable in the fourth quarter. However, due to the large proportion of macro factors, it is difficult to determine the price trend [12]. - Outlook: Due to high macro uncertainty, the price is expected to fluctuate and find a bottom [12]. Synthetic Rubber - View: The futures market shows signs of weakness. - Logic: The decline in the price of raw material butadiene and high production volumes are the main reasons for the weakness. Although downstream demand is increasing, the growth rate is lower than the production growth rate, resulting in high inventory levels [14]. - Outlook: The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low this year [14]. Cotton - View: Cost support makes the cotton price relatively strong, but pay attention to macro - level disturbances. - Logic: In the north of Xinjiang, the cotton purchase is almost finished, while in the south, the purchase price is rising, increasing the processing cost. The new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and the commercial inventory is starting to accumulate. Pay attention to the progress of China - US economic and trade consultations. The price may face pressure above the range of 13600 - 13800 yuan/ton [14]. - Outlook: The price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but pay attention to the upper - level pressure [14]. Sugar - View: The sugar price is fluctuating at a low level. - Logic: In the medium - to - long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, leading to a downward trend in prices. In the short - term, the international market is relatively loose, and the domestic market has a marginal reduction in supply pressure. However, the price may face downward pressure again when the northern hemisphere enters the new sugar supply period [15]. - Outlook: The price will fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long - term. Consider short - selling on rebounds [15]. Pulp - View: The financial trading atmosphere has driven up the pulp futures price, but the futures - spot price gap remains. - Logic: Although the pulp futures price has rebounded, the spot price has not increased significantly. The demand for softwood pulp is weak, and there is an over - supply situation for hardwood pulp. The futures price is close to the spot price, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium. However, pay attention to the impact of restricted waste pulp imports on the market [16]. - Outlook: The market will fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see, as changes in waste pulp may cause market fluctuations [16]. Double - Glued Paper - View: More paper mills are stabilizing prices, and the market is trading within a range. - Logic: The supply pressure remains due to new production capacity in the South China region. The demand from downstream printing factories is weak, and the decline in the price of upstream wood pulp has limited support for the cost. Although some paper mills are trying to stabilize prices, the market expectation is still pessimistic [17]. - Outlook: It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral strategies. Pay attention to new factors that may affect market sentiment [17]. Logs - View: Negative factors have led to a decline in log prices with reduced positions. - Logic: Informationally, the expected cancellation of the special port fee has led to long - position liquidation. Fundamentally, the concentrated arrival of goods at ports and weak sales of related products have put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to be in a weak state, with a high probability of inventory accumulation in the future [20][21]. - Outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with a weakening fundamental situation and repeated information - based games [21].