尿素早评：情绪好转，反转存疑-20251028

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The current futures market is mainly driven by short - position holders taking profit. It is recommended to continue holding previously sold out - of - the - money put options. The current urea valuation is relatively low, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate the industry's self - clearing. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force for urea, and the subsequent possible driving factors are the old device renovation in the chemical industry on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1640.00 yuan/ton on October 27, down 2.00 yuan (-0.12%) from October 24. UR05 closed at 1713.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan (-0.35%). UR09 closed at 1745.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan (-0.17%) [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small Granules) - In Shandong, the price was 1610.00 yuan/ton on October 27, up 40.00 yuan (2.55%) from October 24. In Henan, it was 1590.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.27%). In Hebei, it was 1630.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.88%). In Jiangsu, it was 1610.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan (2.55%). Prices in Shanxi and Northeast remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 103.00 yuan/ton on October 27, up 46.00 yuan from October 24. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 73.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - The anthracite coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030.00 yuan/ton and 880.00 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900.00 yuan/ton and 2500.00 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong was 5084.00 yuan/ton on October 27, up 34.00 yuan (0.67%) from October 24, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1647 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1655 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1635 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1640 yuan/ton with a settlement price of 1641 yuan/ton. The position volume was 281954 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the sold out - of - the - money put options (Viewpoint score: 0) [1]