贸易摩擦缓和压制贵?属

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend of precious metals is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the long - term trend remains bullish [1][3] Core Viewpoints - Trade frictions ease, leading to a decline in safe - haven demand and a short - term weakening of precious metal prices. However, the expectation of interest rate cuts still provides support, and trading within the range with strict risk control is recommended [1] - The precious metals have entered a phased adjustment, but the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged due to factors such as debt over - issuance and the decline of the US dollar's credit [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - The US and China reached a "substantive framework" in Kuala Lumpur, and the threat of 100% tariffs on China was lifted; the assessment of rare - earth related controls was postponed [2] - The US CPI in September was lower than expected, leading the market to price in further interest rate cuts this week and this year [2] - Due to the government shutdown, the release of inflation data in October may be delayed, increasing the market's bet on interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction [2] - The US fiscal deficit in Q3 reached $1.55 trillion, a year - on - year increase of about 40%, driving the market's bet on long - term monetary easing [2] - The ECB may consider reducing the emergency bond - buying program this year if external shocks are controllable [2] - Global central banks net - purchased about 38 tons of gold in September, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for the 23rd consecutive month [2] - The Philippine central bank is considering selling part of its "excessive" gold reserves as the demand for safe - haven weakens [2] Price Logic - Gold has started a phased adjustment, with short - term prices being suppressed by the easing of trade tensions. The focus in Q4 is on the December window period. In the long run, gold remains a core asset to hedge against the risk of the US dollar's credit decline [3] - Silver's short - term price movement is in line with that of gold, also entering a phased adjustment. The short - term price is affected by policies and risk sentiment, and the long - term price center will rise with gold [3][6] Outlook - This week, attention should be paid to the signals of the FOMC's interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction, as well as the details of trade negotiations. The weekly price range for London gold is [3950 - 4200], and for London silver is [46 - 52] [6]