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商品期货早班车-20251028
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-10-28 01:23
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, with a recommendation to buy at support levels for gold and reduce long positions in silver [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish, while the alumina price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [2]. - Zinc is recommended to be short - sold at high prices, and lead is recommended to be bought on pullbacks [2][3]. - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in short supply in the short - term, with prices volatile and bullish, and it is necessary to closely monitor the reduction of warehouse receipts [3]. - Polysilicon's 11 - contract has a price bottom support at 48,000 yuan, and the 12 - contract and later contracts are expected to trade in the range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan, with a suggestion to buy on dips [3][4]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract and the iron ore 2605 contract, and to wait and see for coking coal [4]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are short - term bullish, corn is expected to be volatile and bearish, oils and fats are bearish, sugar is recommended to be short - sold in the futures market and sell call options, cotton is advisable to wait and see, eggs are expected to be range - bound, pigs are expected to recover, and apples are advisable to wait and see [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE and PP are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the long - term, PVC is recommended to be short - sold or in a reverse spread, PTA is recommended to be long - bought in the medium - term and short - sold for processing fees in the long - term, rubber is expected to be range - bound, glass is recommended to be in a reverse spread, MEG is recommended to be short - sold at high prices, styrene is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term, and soda ash is advisable to wait and see [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: International gold priced in London gold fell below the $4000 support on Monday [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump extended the US - Mexico trade negotiation period, and there were multiple international trade and policy events. Gold and silver inventories in various markets changed, and ETF holdings decreased [1]. - Trading Strategy: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in October. It is recommended to buy gold at support levels and reduce long positions in silver [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The electrolytic aluminum main contract rose 0.64% to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the alumina main contract rose 0.68% to 2829 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate was stable. Some alumina plants resumed production [2]. - Trading Strategy: The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and the alumina price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [2]. Zinc - Market Performance: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.02% to 22,310 yuan/ton, and social inventories increased slightly [2][3]. - Fundamentals: The mine supply was abundant, smelting profits were high, and consumption was flat [3]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell at high prices [3]. Lead - Market Performance: The Shanghai lead 2511 contract fell 0.62% to 17,525 yuan/ton, and social inventories decreased [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply became generally tight, and there was still rigid demand from lead - acid batteries [3]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on pullbacks [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 01 contract rose 0.50% to 8965 yuan/ton, with increased positions and decreased warehouse receipts [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply might decrease in the future, and demand was relatively stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2601 rose 2.9% to 81,900 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand was strong, with expected inventory reduction [3]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, and closely monitor the reduction of warehouse receipts [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 01 contract rose 4.20% to 54,500 yuan/ton, with increased positions and decreased warehouse receipts [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply might decrease, demand was relatively stable, and the fourth - quarter photovoltaic installation growth was under pressure [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: The 11 - contract has a price bottom support at 48,000 yuan, and the 12 - contract and later contracts are expected to trade in the range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan, with a suggestion to buy on dips [3][4]. Black Industry Steel - Market Performance: The rebar 2601 contract rose to 3111 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Building material inventories decreased, and the supply - demand contradiction was limited but with significant structural differentiation [4]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract, and the RB01 reference range is 3070 - 3140 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore 2601 contract rose to 790.5 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply was in line with the seasonal pattern, and demand was relatively strong, with expected slow inventory accumulation [4]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on the iron ore 2605 contract, and the I01 reference range is 780 - 810 yuan/ton [4]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal 2601 contract rose to 1262 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side inventories were differentiated, and there was an expected production reduction [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, and the JM01 reference range is 1230 - 1270 yuan/ton [4]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - Fundamentals: US soybeans had a slight reduction in production, and South America had an expected increase in production. Demand was differentiated [6]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are short - term bullish, and domestic soybeans are range - bound, paying attention to tariff policies [6]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices were weak, and spot prices fell [6]. - Fundamentals: Corn quality in North China was damaged, and new grain was about to be listed, with weak downstream demand [6]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to be volatile and bearish [6]. Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market fell [6]. - Fundamentals: Malaysian palm oil production increased, and exports decreased, with inventory accumulation in the near term [6]. - Trading Strategy: Oils and fats are bearish, and the P structure is suitable for reverse spreads [6]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rose 0.2% to 5444 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic sugar production is uncertain. The market may face downward pressure if northern hemisphere production increases [6]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market Performance: US cotton futures prices fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton was range - bound [6]. - Fundamentals: US cotton quality was good, and Vietnam's textile exports increased. Domestic cotton acquisition in northern Xinjiang was coming to an end [6]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, with a range - bound strategy of 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rose, and spot prices were mixed [6]. - Fundamentals: Egg prices were low, demand increased, but supply was sufficient, and vegetable prices dragged down egg prices [6]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to be range - bound [6]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices continued to rebound, and spot prices rose [7]. - Fundamentals: Pig supply increased, slaughter volume recovered, and secondary fattening entered the market [7]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to recover [7]. Apples - Market Performance: The main contract rose 0.97% to 8936 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: Apple prices in some regions rose, the overall quality was poor, and inventory was low [7]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market Performance: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly, and the import window was closed [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand improved in the agricultural film season [8]. - Trading Strategy: Volatile in the short - term, and bearish in the long - term, with suggestions to short - sell at high prices or in a reverse spread [8]. PVC - Market Performance: V01 rose 0.6% to 4747 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell or in a reverse spread [8]. PTA - Market Performance: PX CFR China price was 821 dollars/ton, and PTA spot price was 4505 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: PX supply was high, PTA production increased, and polyester demand improved [9]. - Trading Strategy: Long - buy in the medium - term and short - sell for processing fees in the long - term [9]. Rubber - Market Performance: RU2601 closed at 15380 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [9]. - Fundamentals: Raw material prices were supportive, and inventory decreased [9]. - Trading Strategy: Range - bound in the short - term with strong support at the bottom [9]. Glass - Market Performance: FG01 closed flat at 1095 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply was high, demand was weak, and inventory accumulated [9]. - Trading Strategy: Reverse spread [9]. PP - Market Performance: The PP main contract fluctuated slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand improved during the peak season but was affected by previous subsidies [9]. - Trading Strategy: Volatile in the short - term, and bearish in the long - term, with suggestions to short - sell at high prices or in a reverse spread [9]. MEG - Market Performance: MEG spot price was 4183 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 84 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: Supply was high, and inventory was expected to accumulate [10]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell at high prices [10]. Styrene - Market Performance: The EB main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand contradictions were large, and demand was affected by previous subsidies [10]. - Trading Strategy: Volatile and bearish in the short - term, and bearish in the long - term, with suggestions to short - sell at high prices or in a reverse spread [10]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: SA01 rose 1.3% to 1247 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand were balanced, and inventory increased slightly [10]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [10].