铝产业链日评：中美经贸谈判缓和支撑铝价-20251028

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20251028: Easing of China-US Economic and Trade Negotiations Supports Aluminum Prices [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Views - The easing of China-US economic and trade negotiations supports aluminum prices [1] - Domestic alumina supply and demand is expected to be loose, but production losses may limit the decline in alumina prices [2] - The price of Shanghai aluminum may be cautiously bullish due to expectations of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, the preliminary agreement reached in China-US economic and trade negotiations, and the decline in inventory [2] - The price of aluminum alloy may be cautiously bullish due to expectations of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, the preliminary agreement reached in China-US economic and trade negotiations, and the tight supply and demand of domestic scrap aluminum [2] Group 4: Price and Market Data Alumina - The national average price of alumina decreased by 7.10 yuan/ton to 2881.03 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of alumina in various regions such as Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan decreased [2] - The Australian alumina FOB price remained unchanged at 319 US dollars/ton [2] Aluminum - The SMM A00 aluminum semi-average price increased by 50.00 yuan/ton to 21160 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of A00 aluminum in various regions such as Shenyang, Zhongyuan, and Tianjin showed different changes [2] - The closing price of electrolytic aluminum futures increased by 135.00 yuan/ton to 21360 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Alloy - The SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) semi-average price increased by 50.00 yuan/ton to 22250 yuan/ton [2] - The futures closing price of cast aluminum alloy increased by 10.00 yuan/ton to 20715 yuan/ton [2] London Aluminum - The LME 3-month aluminum futures closing price (electronic disk) was 10947 (data for some days was N/A) [2] - The LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 month contract spread and 3 - 15 month contract spread showed different values (some data was N/A) [2] Price Ratios - The Shanghai-London aluminum price ratio was 7.4777, an increase of 0.05 [2] Group 5: Market Volume and Position Data Alumina - The trading volume was 251558 lots, and the open interest was 372484 lots [2] - The inventory was 223372 tons [2] Aluminum - The trading volume was 2686.00 lots, and the open interest was 311269 lots [2] - The inventory decreased by 402.00 tons to 66299 tons [2] Aluminum Alloy - The trading volume of cast aluminum alloy futures (active contract) was 3221 lots, and the open interest was 10124 lots [2] Group 6: Basis and Spread Data Alumina - The basis was 52.03 yuan/ton [2] - The spreads between different contract months such as near-month - consecutive first, consecutive first - consecutive second showed different values [2] Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum basis (spot - futures) was -85.00 yuan/ton [2] - The spreads between different contract months such as Shanghai aluminum near - month - Shanghai aluminum consecutive first showed different values [2] Aluminum Alloy - The daily basis of cast aluminum alloy was -10.00 yuan/ton [2] - The spreads between different contract months of cast aluminum alloy showed different values [2] Group 7: Trading Strategies Alumina - Wait for the price to rise to a high level to lay out short positions, and pay attention to the support level around 2600 - 2800 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 (view score: 0) [2] Aluminum - Lay out long positions when the price falls back, and pay attention to the support level around 20300 - 20600 and the resistance level around 21500 - 22000; for London aluminum, pay attention to the support level around 2600 - 2700 and the resistance level around 2900 - 3000 (view score: 1) [2] Aluminum Alloy - Lay out long positions when the price falls back, or try to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy with a light position in the short - term, and pay attention to the support level around 20000 - 20300 and the resistance level around 20800 - 21000 (view score: 1) [2]