Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 27, 2025, the A - share market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4000 points, and the trading volume of the two markets increased significantly. Different futures varieties had different price trends affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On October 27, the three major A - share indexes continued their strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.18% to 3996.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.51% to 13489.40 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.98% to 3234.45 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2340.1 billion yuan, an increase of 365.9 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index also showed strength, closing at 4716.02, a ring - up of 55.34 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On October 27, the weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1803.5, a ring - up of 14.2. Coke enterprises had difficulty replenishing stocks, intermediate - link purchases increased, and steel mills had a strong rigid demand for coke. Coal mine inventories decreased to the lowest point of the year, and coke inventories in coke enterprises and ports also decreased [3][5]. - Coking Coal: On October 27, the weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 1276.4 yuan, a ring - up of 11.9. The domestic coking coal market was in a pattern of tight supply, supported demand, rising prices, and low inventory. Coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia had production cuts, and Mongolian coal prices rose due to reduced port clearance [4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar on Friday and the reduction of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly lower on Monday. At night, it fluctuated slightly higher supported by bargain - hunting buying. Sugar - making enterprises in Yunnan and Guangxi were preparing to start the new crushing season [5]. Rubber - Affected by factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on Monday. In September 2025, China's rubber tire outer tube production increased year - on - year, and the synthetic rubber production also increased significantly [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 27, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated strongly. The market expected a downward adjustment of US soybean yield, and Brazilian soybean sowing progress exceeded expectations. Domestically, on October 27, the M2601 main contract closed at 2932 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.03%. The supply pressure was obvious, and the inventory was at a high level [6][7]. Live Pigs - On October 27, the live pig futures price fluctuated strongly, with the LH2601 main contract closing at 12330 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.27%. The widening of the standard - fat price difference attracted secondary fattening, and the government's reserve meat purchase plan and positive statements supported the market. However, the oversupply situation in October remained unchanged, and the room for continuous price increase was limited [8]. Palm Oil - On October 27, palm oil continued to fluctuate slightly at the lower edge of the range. From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased, and the export volume also increased significantly compared with the same period last month [9]. Shanghai Copper - The macro - environment was favorable, the supply was tight, and the technical form was good, so Shanghai copper was expected to continue its strong operation. However, high prices might suppress demand, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate meeting [10]. Cotton - On Monday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13580 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the Xinjiang cotton picking progress had completed 70% [10]. Iron Ore - On October 27, the 2601 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and rose, with a rise of 1.94% and a closing price of 786.5 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume rebounded, and the domestic arrival volume declined. The iron water output continued to decline, and the short - term price was in a fluctuating trend [10]. Asphalt - On October 27, the 2601 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.03% and a closing price of 3295 yuan. The production pressure in November decreased, the inventory was reduced, and the short - term price was in a fluctuating state [11][12]. Logs - On October 27, the log futures price plummeted by 5%. The market expected an improvement in Sino - US trade negotiations, and the shipping price declined. The spot price was stable, and the supply - demand relationship was relatively balanced [12]. Steel - On October 27, the rb2601 closed at 3100 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 closed at 3299 yuan/ton. The macro - expectation was good, but the traditional peak season was coming to an end, and the demand was difficult to increase. The short - term steel price was expected to fluctuate strongly [13]. Alumina - On October 27, the ao2601 closed at 2829 yuan/ton. The supply in November was expected to be sufficient, and the price might decline slightly, but the decline space was limited [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On October 27, the al2512 closed at 21360 yuan/ton. The Sino - US trade negotiation released positive signals, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation supported the non - ferrous market. The demand showed a cooling trend, and the downstream mainly met the rigid demand [14].
国新国证期货早报-20251028
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-10-28 01:17