格林大华期货早盘提示：铁矿-20251028

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is short - term "oscillating bullish", but caution is advised regarding the upside potential [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment. The current arrival volume of iron ore decreased month - on - month while the shipping volume increased. The previous hot metal daily output was still at a relatively high level but is expected to decline, and the market is expected to be short - term oscillating bullish with limited upside [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Iron ore futures closed higher in the night session on Monday [3]. 3.2 Important Information - Premier Li Qiang attended the fifth RCEP leaders' meeting and called on all parties to work together to address challenges [3]. - At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, central bank and regulatory officials made key statements, including resuming open - market Treasury bond trading, improving the monetary policy framework, and cracking down on virtual currency operations [3]. - From October 20th to 26th, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 20.843 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.92 million tons [3]. - From October 20th to 26th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 33.884 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.548 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 29.259 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.008 million tons [3]. 3.3 Market Logic - The short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment. The current arrival volume of iron ore decreased month - on - month while the shipping volume increased. The previous hot metal daily output was 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons week - on - week, still at a relatively high level. Steel mills in some areas of Hebei are under production restrictions, and the hot metal output is expected to decline to below 2.3 million tons [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - The market is short - term oscillating bullish, but due to the expected decline in hot metal output, caution is advised regarding the upside potential. The resistance level for the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750. Short - term operations with stop - losses are recommended [3].