社会服务行业双周报：“十五五”或突出消费需求增长导向，前三季度文旅消费平稳增长-20251028

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the social services sector has shown stable growth in cultural and tourism consumption during the first three quarters of 2025, with domestic travel reaching 4.998 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [4][30]. - The report anticipates that upcoming policies aimed at promoting service consumption will provide further benefits to the industry [4]. - The social services sector's performance in the last two trading weeks was an increase of 0.83%, ranking 7th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification [1][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's sub-sectors showed varied performance, with tourism retail leading at +2.80%, followed by professional services at +1.81% and tourism and scenic spots at +1.13% [16]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the social services industry is 34.83 times, which is at the 31.83% historical percentile, compared to the 13.69 times for the CSI 300 index at the 66.90% historical percentile [20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth certainty in the travel chain and related industries, including Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Co., among others [4]. - It also highlights the potential benefits for hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel due to the recovery of business travel and increased market share post-pandemic [4]. Industry Company News - The report notes that the domestic travel market remains robust, with a significant increase in both the number of trips and spending, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [30]. - It mentions the recent adjustments to the Hainan duty-free shopping policy, which is expected to enhance the tourism experience and boost consumption [29].