Minsheng Securities·2025-10-28 01:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the semiconductor equipment industry, highlighting growth opportunities driven by AI applications and advanced logic and memory technology upgrades [5]. Core Insights - The global semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach a record $125.5 billion by 2025, driven by capacity expansion for AI applications and technology iterations across various segments [1][11]. - China is expected to lead global spending on 300mm equipment, with an investment of $94 billion from 2026 to 2028, supported by national policies [17]. - AI applications are significantly boosting demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and NAND flash storage, with the overall revenue for AI semiconductors expected to grow from $8.2 billion to $41.3 billion from 2020 to 2030, at a CAGR of 24.4% [22][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Semiconductor Process Upgrades and AI-Driven Capital Expenditure - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow, with global spending on 300mm wafer fab equipment projected to exceed $100 billion for the first time in 2025, reaching $107 billion [10]. - AI applications are driving continuous growth in capital expenditure, with data center investments expected to rise from $17 billion in 2020 to $45.3 billion by 2028 [20]. - Advanced logic processes have progressed to the 2nm node, necessitating upgrades in equipment such as etching and deposition tools [26]. 2. AI Applications Driving Storage Demand Growth - The reduction in DDR4 production has led to a continuous increase in storage prices, with DDR4 prices expected to rise significantly due to supply constraints [35][36]. - High-end storage technologies are evolving, with 3D NAND layer counts expected to reach around 1000 layers, enhancing storage density [47]. - The demand for enterprise-grade SSDs is surging as AI models require efficient data storage solutions, with NAND storage demand projected to grow approximately 15% from 2024 to 2029 [46][56]. 3. Supply Chain Security and Self-Sufficiency - The report highlights the challenges in acquiring advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment from overseas, with the U.S. proposing broader bans on sales to China [57]. - Domestic semiconductor manufacturers are expected to gain market share due to supply constraints faced by international competitors, with companies like Changxin Technology projected to increase production capacity significantly [59]. - The focus on self-sufficiency in semiconductor equipment is emphasized, with companies like North Huachuang expanding their product offerings in etching and deposition equipment [60].