国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251028

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron Ore: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][5] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the off - season, focus on the expected rebound opportunities of steel prices [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The spot market trading sentiment is average, with wide - range fluctuations [2][10] - Coke: Expected to fluctuate strongly [2][13] - Coking Coal: Supported by fundamentals, expected to fluctuate strongly [2][14] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][16] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The futures closed at 786.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan or 2.01%. The position decreased by 6,796 lots to 558,846 lots. Imported ore prices generally rose, while domestic ore prices declined. The basis and spreads showed different changes [4] - News: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [4] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price and Position Data: Rebar RB2601 closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan or 1.54%. Hot - rolled coil HC2601 closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan or 1.45%. Spot prices in various regions showed an upward trend. The basis and spreads also changed [6] - News: In the week of October 23rd, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 27.41 tons. In September 2025, national steel production data showed different trends [7][8] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Position Data: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices also showed a downward trend. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [10] - News: On October 27th, silicon - iron prices in different regions were reported, and NMT announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [10] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Data: Coking coal JM2601 closed at 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 1.2%. Coke J2601 closed at 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes. The basis and spreads also had corresponding changes [14] - News: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [15] - Trend Intensity: 1 for both, indicating a relatively strong trend [15] Logs - Price and Position Data: The closing prices of different contracts decreased, with daily and weekly declines. The trading volume and position of some contracts changed significantly [17] - News: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [19] - Trend Intensity: 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [19]